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Mexican update: the betting market speaks
The New York Times can't figure out who won the election. CNN says nothing useful. www.tradesports.com puts Calderon -- the so-called "good guy" -- in the 85 to 96 percent range.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on July 3, 2006 at 07:39 AM in Current Affairs | Permalink
Comments
Is it that the NYT can't figure it out? Or that they have a vested interest in hyping an electoral crisis?
Posted by: DK at Jul 3, 2006 8:27:29 AM
If I was a Mexican election official I would be betting too.
Posted by: jeff at Jul 3, 2006 10:47:37 AM
This will be sorts of an acid test for Mexico's young democracy: Will all players comply with the institutionally mandated outcome? Or will they take things to the streets and try to get with blockades, demonstrations, etc what they didn't get in the voting booth?
JB
Posted by: JB at Jul 3, 2006 12:05:41 PM
When Calderon is announced the winner, Lefty McLefterson is likely to stage theatrical street protests that'll conjure the spirit of Che Guevara himself. So much for a peaceful transition of power.
Posted by: Kevin B. at Jul 3, 2006 2:48:11 PM
From the article:
At 11 p.m., with a quarter of the polling places counted, Mr. Calderón led the race with 38 percent the vote, compared to 35 percent for Mr. López Obrador. Mr. Madrazo had 19 percent.
Earlier in the evening, tension gripped the capital as it became clear the margin in the race was razor-thin.
35% to 38% is not "razor-thin". A margin of a few percentage points is normal in a free and fair election. The warning that López Obrador is a threat to Mexico's democracy, which played a crucial role in the run up to the election, is already proving true.
Posted by: Marcus at Jul 3, 2006 4:22:02 PM
On whether the election was close or not, please see p. 23 of the report below:
http://www.ife.org.mx/informe_Comite-ConteoRapido.pdf
Clearly, a close election. Notice how 2 of the 3 estimation methods yielded overlapping confidence intervals for the top two parties.
Calderon is likely to win by around 0.6% and 1.2% of the vote.
Posted by: JB at Jul 4, 2006 1:52:25 PM
the so-called "good guy"
Why the ironic quotes? From what I understand, Calderon's opponent is cut from the same cloth as the execrable Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales. When one considers the alternative to Calderon, he is an unalloyed good, IMO.
Posted by: dm at Jul 4, 2006 3:54:06 PM
By many accounts, Mexico's election system is cleaner than ours. Photo IDs are required to vote. By contrast, such things are denounced as a racist oppression in the US. Mexico's president is chosen by the popular vote, certainly a simpler system than in the US. Mexico also has a single system of election laws (versus 50 in the US) and one election commission. Large sums have been spent improving Mexico's elections in recent years, with positive results. A fraudulent election, such as occurred in 1988, is unthinkable now.
Calderon appears to enjoy a roughly 1% victory margin. Barring some huge surprises, his margin will survive any lingering ballots, recounts, etc. In other words, he will be the next President of Mexico. AMLO (Andrés Manuel López Obrador) may force a recount, however he will not challenge any legitimate outcome.
For the record, AMLO is not the devil and might have done good things for Mexico. He is not the Mexican Hugo Chavez. His ideas for improving the lot of the very poor and reforming NAFTA had considerable merit. Moderate leftists have done well as leaders in several Latin American countries of late (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay). As an American I don't get to vote in Mexico's elections, however the demonization of AMLO in the US press was overdone.
Posted by: Peter Schaeffer at Jul 4, 2006 6:00:26 PM
Sounds like Tyler's not convinced that Calderon is Mexico's best option? Why?
Posted by: Paul N at Jul 4, 2006 9:54:44 PM
Neither is the Economist, interestingly enough
Basically to them it came down to deregulation and social backwardness vs anti-corruption and an (exaggerated, in their opinion) authoritarian streak
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Posted by: levan at Sep 11, 2006 2:52:23 AM
