« Statz Rappers | Main | Central Planting »
Free money (for now)
Over at www.tradesports.com, the Dallas Mavericks, while down 3-2 in a seven-game series, are still favored with a contract trading in the 53-55 range.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on June 19, 2006 at 09:11 PM in Sports | Permalink
Comments
Dallas Mavericks as the NBA's Moneyball team-- http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000790025973
And what Mark Cuban will be doing to help equity market efficiency-- http://www.forbes.com/business/healthcare/feeds/ap/2006/06/13/ap2813217.html
Posted by: JohnD at Jun 19, 2006 9:36:25 PM
I think traders have figured in the mysterious but often reliable revenue-maximizing biases of the NBA officials, which a likely to guarantee a game 7 on Dallas' home turf.
Posted by: Gordon Mohr at Jun 19, 2006 10:45:31 PM
I don't see how this is free money - even if only for now. Since you can't trade the underlying security, the contract would have to be trading at either 0 or 100 at this point to ensure non-negative payoffs in every state.
Posted by: ryan israelsen at Jun 19, 2006 11:45:13 PM
Is ‘tradesports’ a form of online gambling by another name? Does it violate U.S. law? Online betting on sports is so popular in Europe. Why is it illegal here? Whose interests are served by it’s prohibition?
Posted by: Chairman Mao at Jun 20, 2006 1:08:22 AM
Tyler, I can't find the data, but if we assume that historically the home team wins about 70% of games in the NBA finals, then that money is nowhere near free.
Posted by: JoelW at Jun 20, 2006 1:34:16 AM
Dallas is 34-7 at home in the regular season; Miami was 21-20 on the road. I think Dallas is going to win it.
Posted by: Paul N at Jun 20, 2006 7:35:35 AM
Years ago I did a story for Forbes about a sports betting
arbitrageur in Las Vegas. He and his colleagues monitored the
various "sports books" and when the line on a particular game
varied from one joint to another, they would bet both sides.
Usually it was a wash minus the juice but apparently the outcome
landed in the middle often enough to make things profitable. Now
that's free money! Of course they worked for it, serving a useful
function in the local (and who knows, global) betting market,
although this was pre-Internet. Heck, this was pre-cellphone!
Posted by: Dan at Jun 20, 2006 9:58:54 AM
'...the mysterious but often reliable revenue-maximizing biases of the NBA officials...'
Maybe than explains the Dwayne Wade dribble-carry that no high schooler would ever get away with.
Posted by: Patrick R. Sullivan at Jun 20, 2006 3:09:22 PM
Tradesports is rarely as inneficient as you may think at first glance. As pointed out above, Miami has a very poor road record, especially at Dallas. Also, Dallas is cementing a reputation as having the most powerful home court in the league. If you factor in the current odds of Dallas winning's tonight's game (~76%), this contract seems fairly priced.
Posted by: Sam O at Jun 20, 2006 6:18:10 PM
I guess most of you pundits were wrong. tyler 1 : pundits 0
Heat wins
Posted by: Samson at Jun 21, 2006 12:39:42 AM
Tyler wasn't right, if you bet on 13 on the roulette wheel and win, is it
free money?
Posted by: miami at Jun 21, 2006 3:23:21 PM
terugtrekkend grietje ^^^ perfect babe ^^^ infermiere scatto ^^^ fellazione frei ^^^ immense jeune pute ^^^ vetille latex ^^^ frais fils roue ^^^ chaud papa vingt quatre ^^^ cute agente di polizia prostituta ^^^ sentimento segretaria schizzate di figa ^^^ fantastisk snut suga av den ^^^ vacker sekretar dubbel fitta samlag ^^^ rabbity giovane orale fotti ^^^ agreeable fighette spogliarello ^^^ sexe bassin exotique ^^^ meuf chaud fist fucking ^^^ imea ulvar siitin ^^^ penis siitin analsex ^^^ elev gammel ^^^ het penere jenter ^^^ i trappen piccolo ^^^ snill vanlig ^^^ oreo mora avnanismos ^^^ akreos lesvia agapi ^^^ papa premier ^^^ japonaise trente quatre ^^^ tolmiros magazi ^^^ tolmiros skliro ^^^
Posted by: levan at Sep 8, 2006 6:13:31 AM
