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Why Eric Rasmusen does not worry about the housing bubble
Housing is a special form of wealth...If its price falls after a bubble, the cost of consumption is falling at the same time as the amount of wealth. In fact, the country has become richer, because all the same real assets exist, but their replacement cost has fallen.
Also, since houses are mortgaged, the wealth loss is shared by household and banks, while the consumption cost gain is entirely to households. The real wealth of households will thus have risen, and consumption should increase (I am thinking that banks are owned by richer people, who save more). Am I right on this?
Here is the link. Here is my previous post on this topic. So is Eric right not to worry?
Posted by Tyler Cowen on April 6, 2006 at 06:56 AM in Economics | Permalink
Comments
Ouch! Eric is wrong because he ignores credit effects and government guarantees. First, the only way the banks will lose wealth on housing prices is if actual bankruptcies result. This will naturally make mortgages more expensive, which will not only offset the fall in the price of a new house but also affect consumption-fueling credit cards. The payments, not the sticker price, are what matters to consumers.
Second, the "richer people" who save more are the ones who will be able to buy second homes or rental property at newly-cheap prices. The less rich people whose wealth is entirely in home equity or whose total wealth is negative will be the ones at highest risk of bankruptcy, with less ability to tap home equity for consumption, and with the greatest additional costs for other forms of credit.
Third, if things get bad enough and some "rich" banks or the overleveraged Fannie Mae get into trouble, guess what? Taxpayers will be on the hook.
Posted by: DK at Apr 6, 2006 9:11:08 AM
This reminds me of David Friedman's argument that, whether house prices increase or decrease, you're simply moving to a higher indifference curve, and therefore ought to be better off.
Posted by: nobody at Apr 6, 2006 9:50:32 AM
Property tax will cause a howl too. I think comunities will pretend the bubble hasn't burst as long as they can on that one issue alone.
Posted by: Huggy at Apr 6, 2006 9:57:09 AM
Besides the credit effects, there are psychological ones. Also, if housing prics suffer a sudden drop, there is a sudden change in labor mobility: those who currently own houses are unlikely to want to move if their mortgage now exceeds the value of their house. On the flipside, those who were previously priced out of many markets but don't currently own houses will be able to move into areas previously unaffodable to them. Since these two groups are not the same there would be some effect.
Here's a puzzle: why can I and my wife obtain unsecured credit more cheaply than a home equity loan? The difference is roughly 2%, even ignoring the ready availability of 0% teaser interest rates that are often offered by credit card companies.
Possible explanations:
- the bank knows that we value our good credit score more than our house (it's assessed at only $50K or so, being in a bad neighborhood), so regards that as a form of collateral
- the credit card companies are gambling that we will screw up our payments somehow, putting us in a higher interest rate category (but the ease with which debt can be transferred to other creditors makes this seem a bad gamble)
- the bank would like to offer us a lower rate on the home equity loan, but is unable to do so for legal reasons (for example, they would then have to offer the same rate to everyone in our zip code or something). This seems interesting, but the rates in question are so low already that I'm skeptical of this.
- the credit card companies are trying to game their numbers. For example they might be desperate to maximize growth as a way of increasing share price. Or they might want their portfolio to have certain statistical characteristics and be willing to subsidize some debtors slightly to achieve this. Both of these are economically irrational, though.
Anyway, sorry to drift offtopic. The notion that a housing bubble crash woulnd't cause problems seems like ivory-tower theorizing at its finest. In this case I think looking to history would be more informative.
Posted by: bbartlog at Apr 6, 2006 10:39:45 AM
In a rising interest rate environment even foreclosures may not hurt lenders that much. Many recent mortgages are at low rates. I'm not talking about the interest-only or very low teaser ARM's. Even conventional rates have been quite low. A foreclosure eliminates this low-rate debt from the mortgage-holder's portfolio.
Even a loss on a foreclosure and resale might be largely made up by being able to lend the proceeds at today's higher rates. For example, if you foreclose on a $100K mortgage at 5%, and realize only $90,000, you are ahead if you can lend the $90K out at 6%.
Essentially you are calling in long-term low-rate loans early, at a discount, and re-lending the money at a higher rate.
Posted by: Bernard Yomtov at Apr 6, 2006 11:35:35 AM
Umm, no, foreclosure does NOT make money for the lender. Estimates of the cost of foreclosure are $50K-%60K per house. Try reinvesting your $100K mortgage loan in a new $50K loan.
http://www.chicagofed.org/community_development/files/02_2006_foreclosure_alt.pdf
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20040822/news_1h22harney.html
That's not to mention that in the hypothetical case of a bubble collapse, the lenders will have even larger losses on resales of foreclosed homes than they did in the last few years.
Posted by: DK at Apr 6, 2006 11:53:59 AM
Gotta go with DK on this one Tyler
Posted by: Martin at Apr 6, 2006 12:04:33 PM
DK,
You have a point. I have no idea what foreclosure actually costs. Still, I might mention that to the extent homes were purchased more than just a few years ago the price has to drop a lot before it gets below the mortgage amount, again assuming a sensible down payment and mortgage terms.
Posted by: Bernard Yomtov at Apr 6, 2006 12:53:53 PM
Foreclosure of mortages, like all collections, is a negative sum game. In the worst case, a lendor would spend $0.99 to collect $1.00 of debt, which is a net loss of $0.99.
Posted by: Half Sigma at Apr 6, 2006 2:26:04 PM
Half sigma, the worst case is that the lender will spend more than the debt is worth to collect the debt. I deliberately try to cause this with parking and traffic tickets.
Rasmussen is right up to a point. If my house becomes worth less than I owe on it, but I am willing to continue the payments, nobody loses directly. I still have my house, the bank still has an income stream.
The issue is the loss of liquidity. I am currently theoretically capable of borrowing about $80,000 - $100,000 against the equity in my house, based on current prices. If prices fell to what they were when I bought the house, I'd be limited to $40,000 or less. If I had something I wanted to do with that money, I'm better off with a higher valuation on my house. Of course, I'm also better off if I want to sell my house and move somewhere else - my options are reduced even if other locations experience a price drop.
Posted by: Anthony at Apr 6, 2006 2:51:25 PM
There are two groups: those with houses and those without. So if prices fall, it will increase consumption for those without houses and decrease consumption of those with houses through the wealth effect. The problem is that interest rate rises will tend to coincide a housing price drop and cause a liquidity squeeze for most people, especially those with adjustable rate mortgages. The bursting of the bubble is caused by the climbing interest rate so you can't really analyze the housing market as though interest rates are held constant.
Posted by: teddy at Apr 6, 2006 3:23:12 PM
I think Bernard Yomtov's original claim is correct: if the interest rate doubles, it is worthwhile for the lender to foreclose, if it can extract half of the value.
DK and Half-Sigma: I think you are saying the same thing, and you are ignoring the change in interest rates.
Posted by: L at Apr 6, 2006 6:05:34 PM
I doubt there will be many foreclosures. People in general are unaware of the really difficult position of a homeowner in negative equity. One cannot sell (not without making up the deficit, but if one had that sort of money he wouldn't have taken this sort of mortgage). One can't refinance with a competing bank. The alternatives are (1) make the payments agreed to, (2) be foreclosed, (3) accept whatever deal the mortgage holder offers.
What I expect is mortgage holders will offer to "renegotiate" mortgages where the homeowner has fallen behind on the increased payments. They will probably say to their victims, "We don't want you to lose your home." The new payment will be lower than the agreed-to payment, and therefore more affordable; the difference between it and the agreed-to payment will be added to principal, as will a sum represented as the cost of "renegotiation."
No loss to the bank.
Posted by: jim at Apr 6, 2006 6:33:43 PM
Jim, a lot of people can barely cover their interest payments as it is now, I don't see what room a bank has to rengotiate in that sort of circumstance.
Posted by: Doug at Apr 6, 2006 7:04:30 PM
This is my way of thinking, In fact I have money just waiting to invest in some property, but I want to wait until the "bust" so i can buy at lower prices. I have one rental already, and its earning me income, and growing my wealth at the same time.
Posted by: kyle n at Apr 6, 2006 7:07:52 PM
Doug,
Perhaps I was elliptical. The situation is:
1. A homeowner on an adjustable mortgage can barely meet his existing house payment (as you point out).
2. The payment, per the terms of the original mortgage, rises.
3. The homeowner fails to meet the new payments (preferring, perhaps, to eat).
4. The bank offers a new deal: a new lower payment, perhaps close to the original payment; to compensate, the principal owed to the bank rises. The homeowner goes deeper into the hole with each passing month.
5. At some future point, perhaps ten, perhaps even twenty, years on, house prices recover, the unhapppy homeowner can finally sell (or refinance), the bank recovers the increased principal.
I put "renegotiation" in scare quotes because in this situation the homeowner has no leverage. Either he accepts the new terms or the morgage holder forecloses.
Posted by: jim at Apr 6, 2006 8:49:15 PM
this would be a lot more convincing if there was even one single example of a bursting real estate bubble which had not left the country where it happened visibly worse off. I mean seriously guys; theory is all well and good, but there are facts of the matter here.
Posted by: dsquared at Apr 7, 2006 3:11:49 AM
Jim and Doug, the links I posted early involve exactly this: banks renegotiating mortgages to avoid the costs of foreclosure. I don't think I linked them correctly, though. Try .
The homeowners _do_ have leverage, because the costs of foreclosure are so high. People have also been known to trash their houses before the foreclosure eviction; it is very easy to destroy value in a hurry.
Posted by: DK at Apr 7, 2006 8:49:14 AM
There are other mechanisms besides foreclosure and renegotiation of loans. A company I worked for in the early 90s had bought its headquarters building in Los Angeles. About 1992, when the market for commercial property in LA was very soft, they discovered that their lender had placed their mortgage up for sale on the secondary market at a half-million dollar discount (on a $4 million mortgage). They arranged to buy the mortgage, financed through a different lender, thus sticking their original lender with much of the loss from the decline in property values. (The original lender, in exchange, reduced its risk of a default which would have cost them even more.)
There's a saying "If you owe the bank a thousand dollars, you're in trouble, if you owe the bank a million dollars, the bank is in trouble." In Santa Clara County, it takes 2500 average homeowners to have an exposure of $1 billion. With that much at stake, the banks will find ways to deflate the bubble slowly, so long as the rest of the economy cooperates.
Posted by: Anthony at Apr 7, 2006 12:04:17 PM
i'd worry. or sell and rent an apartment. then you're landlord can worry.
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Posted by: aewj at Aug 3, 2007 1:25:53 AM