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Fox News seems to matter
Does media bias affect voting? We address this question by looking at the entry of Fox News in cable markets and its impact on voting. Between October 1996 and November 2000, the conservative Fox News Channel was introduced in the cable programming of 20 percent of US towns. Fox News availability in 2000 appears to be largely idiosyncratic. Using a data set of voting data for 9,256 towns, we investigate if Republicans gained vote share in towns where Fox News entered the cable market by the year 2000. We find a significant effect of the introduction of Fox News on the vote share in Presidential elections between 1996 and 2000. Republicans gain 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points in the towns which broadcast Fox News. The results are robust to town-level controls, district and county fixed effects, and alternative specifications. We also find a significant effect of Fox News on Senate vote share and on voter turnout. Our estimates imply that Fox News convinced 3 to 8 percent of its viewers to vote Republican. We interpret the results in light of a simple model of voter learning about media bias and about politician quality. The Fox News effect could be a temporary learning effect for rational voters, or a permanent effect for voters subject to non-rational persuasion.
Here is the link and paper.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on April 25, 2006 at 06:31 AM in Political Science | Permalink
Comments
Perhaps part of the result comes from FOX News being more likely to enter markets where the number of Republicans has just increased.
Posted by: joshg at Apr 25, 2006 8:22:42 AM
Cool study. I'd bet that Fox News improved turnout among the faithful by increasing their sense of group membership.
But is group solidarity an irrational emotional ploy, or is it a rational strategy for maximizing your political influence? This might depend on whether or not you think voting itself is rational if one vote doesn't make a difference.
Posted by: DK at Apr 25, 2006 8:23:52 AM
I think Fox News largely does a great job of preaching to choir. If anything they do are succesful at "rallying the troops" come election time. I do not think that the conservative bias on that network is large enough to sway swing voters or those that are disinterested in politics.
Posted by: John Pertz at Apr 25, 2006 8:40:51 AM
To me, it is not clear whose bias they are talking of: Fox News or their
competitors ? In that case, when Fox News enter the market it becomes less
biased.
Posted by: MK at Apr 25, 2006 8:58:06 AM
MK: Surely you jest.
Posted by: vtconomist at Apr 25, 2006 9:02:44 AM
Actually, vtconomist, the authors make it clear that the effect could run either way. Fox News is more conservative than the others, but whether they merely correct liberal bias or create conservative bias has no effect on their conclusions -- indeed, it would be impossible to separate the two.
Posted by: Jonathan at Apr 25, 2006 9:41:35 AM
MK: Does it really matter whether Fox News is unbiased and the rest of the media is liberal, or Fox News is conservative and the rest of the media is unbiased, for the purposes of this study? The delta is basically all that's being tested here. Unless you believe that Fox News is more liberally biased?
Posted by: neil at Apr 25, 2006 10:33:49 AM
This suggests a parallel study along the lines of finding out the effects on questions like "How much money did Hillary Clinton make in the Whitewater deal?" and "How many Iraqis were involved in the 9/11 hijackings?".
Obviously, there would have to be some clever way of factoring out the relevent data, but the results would probably be interesting.
Posted by: theCoach at Apr 25, 2006 11:55:17 AM
i love how it's assumed to be preaching to the choir rather than exposing the liberal bias in the "mainstream" media. regardless of where exactly fox stands in the political spectrum, this study seems to suggest that the mainstream media generally increases democratic voting (fox might increase republican voting if the existing media were completely impartial, but that seems unlikely, and suggesting that the mainstream media increases republican voting, so that fox just increases that effect, seems laughable, which leaves the possibility that fox is undermining the ability of the mainstream media to increase votes for democrats).
Posted by: dj superflat at Apr 25, 2006 1:29:22 PM
"The Fox News effect could be a temporary learning effect for rational voters, or a permanent effect for voters subject to non-rational persuasion."
An odd choice of words. Is there a rational kind of persuasion? If not, why not simply say "persuasion"? If so, why would Fox News affect those subject to non-rational persuasion but not those subject only to rational persuasion?
Perhaps this is discussed in the paper. I don't feel like paying five bucks to find out, though (nor going through the minor hassle of registering... I'm cheap and lazy).
Posted by: eddie at Apr 25, 2006 1:50:49 PM
Wow. So the most important factor that affected the voting patterns was the introduction of FOX News? The candidates, the economy, the issues etc. are meaningless. All hail FOX News!
Another good example of a meaningless study:
Every time I stub my toe, the Rockies win. Therefore, I must stub my toe more often so the Rockies will win more games.
Posted by: Patinator at Apr 25, 2006 2:21:11 PM
Patinator, if there were actually a statistically meaningful correlation between stubbing your toe and sports victories, I should hope you'd be spending your time at the bookie's rather than insulting people's intelligence on the blogs.
Posted by: neil at Apr 25, 2006 3:17:13 PM
eddie, 'non-rational persuasion' means what it sounds like: persuasion not directed towards the rational facilities -- like an advertisement for beer featuring pictures of models in bikinis.
Posted by: neil at Apr 25, 2006 3:26:37 PM
Can media bias affect voting?.. I think it’s a bit out there, but plausable none the less. Having to see the intro of fox news over and over again on a daily or evening or nightly basis can most certainly have an affect on a voters choice. Having repetitive flashes of a republican candidate can imprint that name/image in his or head and eventually 'convice' them that republican is way the way to go. The media is a very powerful and persuasive tool as we're only able to hear one side of the story. The media chooses what is or is not news and therefore dictating what we hear and watch which could eventually make us vote the way we do. This would especially influence the ones who have NO political background and doesn't know who and what the candidates stand for.
Posted by: ddang at Apr 25, 2006 5:53:01 PM
IMHO, most of the media is center left. This has been largely confirmed by polling of journalism students and the nature of reporting before Fox. Fox News is obviously a mixture of a bunch of conservative trends. They are adamantly in favor of the Bush administration, look at the way they interview the president and his staff. Tony Snow, Britt Hume, Bill O'Reily, Fred Barnes, Bill Kristol, Neil Kavuto, and even their a-political news anchors are all mostly to the right in some form or another. I would not say that Fox News tries to perputrate a coherent ideology in their reporting but they are certainly highly favorable to Republican ideologues and their officials in Washington. I think the biggest dead giveaway to Fox's conservative bias is the fact that the few liberals on the network are incredibly soft(Juan Williams and Alan Colmes).
Posted by: John Pertz at Apr 25, 2006 7:05:29 PM
ok, i might as well drift away from the data and towards the analysis..
John Pertz, IMO, they go astray by injecting political opinion into literally every facet of their programming. This is either overt, like switching to pundits every 5 minutes, even during 'hard news' -- or covert, like what you said about the news anchors pushing right-wing storylines.
In the end, they are setting up an epistemology where opinion is as important or more important than fact. (See Patinator for an example) You could call this 'non-rational persuasion' but someone would probably come along and call you a biased liberal.
Posted by: neil at Apr 25, 2006 7:19:05 PM
I agree with what neil said directly above. I also take issue with John Pertz's statement that most media is "center-left" as confirmed by polling of the views of most reporters. This would be a valid statement if all reporters were as willing to show their views as FNC reporters, but most don't. It seems their political views have the opposite effect as they try compensate for any real or imagined bias.
Posted by: vtconomist at Apr 25, 2006 11:41:42 PM
Speaking as an outsider capable of taking an objective look, have you considered the possibility that the media are more or less neutral reporters, and they look "centre left" because America is a pretty rightwing country?
Posted by: dsquared at Apr 26, 2006 4:31:23 AM
The media for the most part is center left. However, I guess I should get specific. CNN is center left, NY Times-center left, WSJ news division-center left, CBS-center left, WSJ editorial-libertarian, center-right, Wash Post-center left, Wash Times-center right, MSNBC-may be leaning more right than they did in the past in response to Fox's success, ABC-center left, LA Times-center left, Chicago Trib-Center left. Now just because a news division is biased center left does not mean that they are anywhere near Foxnews in terms of bias, it just means they are bit more subtle about it. Oddly enough I took an economics of the media class that argued that all media in this country was right wing because it was owned by 10 large media firms.
However, I have a real hard time believing that when the only obviously right wing news outlets are Foxnews, WSJ editorial, and the Wash times. My teachers opinion was that because media in the U.S was owned by these large firms it was imposible to get radical views on the airwaves. In my mind all that ment was that the media certainly wasnt left, but that doesnt mean that it isnt center left.
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