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Caught my eye
1. What is frustrating about non-economists. "Guess." "I don't know." "Just guess!" "I don't know." "That is why they call it a probability!" "How much do I have to pay you to guess?"
2. Travel notes from Haiti, and there is more behind the links.
3. Profile of economist David Colander, courtesy of www.politicaltheory.info.
4. David Luenberger's Information Science is a comprehensive look at...information science. The best introduction I know.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on April 12, 2006 at 07:34 PM in Web/Tech | Permalink
Comments
Hmmm... perhaps Tyrone or Prof. Cowen could comment on the opposite, too: what do "common folk" get frustrated about economists with? Misconceptions and all...
Posted by: Macneil at Apr 12, 2006 10:17:23 PM
If _Information Science_ is half as good as _Investment Science_ was, this will be amazing.
Posted by: ModalHubby at Apr 12, 2006 11:54:36 PM
I'm with the mechanic on this one. Most people, when they say "guess!", are not asking for probabilities associated with a range of outcomes; they are asking for the most likely outcome. Then, when it doesn't happen, they get mad at you. And I daresay the probability that your interlocutor is one of these people, not an economist, is quite high, so it's understandable that you'd be unwilling to guess when chances are it'll just turn out badly.
Also, of course, it can be quite difficult to assign probabilities to some things. I tend to find economically educated people push for guesses even when they are outside of people's fields of expertise. There are not a lot of things where I feel I have the knowledge to validly assign any sort of probability, and would therefore rather not. I suppose auto mechanics should be within a mechanic's sphere of knowledge (one hopes), but in the general case economists are much too quick to jump to the "assign a probability?" or, equivalently, "bet on that?" question, which I find discomforting.
Posted by: Andromeda at Apr 13, 2006 6:28:47 AM
I'm with Macneil. I can think of a few things that us common folk find frustrating about economists, starting with their conviction that those of us who don't always share their often arresting, usually instructive and sometimes incorrect worldview are the ones who are wrong.
Posted by: Tim G. at Apr 13, 2006 9:19:33 AM
Is there a joke about how if you ask 5 auto mechanics to forecast something, you'll get 6 completely different forecasts? The auto mechanics might be more credible.
What really makes economists different from other professions is their ability to make bad guesses without being sued.
Posted by: DK at Apr 13, 2006 9:36:37 AM
What differentiates economists from other professions is thier ability to look at everything from approximately five different angles- not necessarily a bad thing.
What I find frustrating about non-economists is when they make comments like "Rebecca" here
She's responding to something Harris Miller said about creating new jobs and the minimum wage laws- what is frustrating is the fact that she makes a generalized statement about the nation as a whole without any real knowledge about the effects of minimum wage laws or globalization- all she sees is that an American doesn't have a job without thinking about the fact that if the American went to college, he or she wouldn't really be trying to get the types of jobs that are typically sent overseas or a number of other factors. You have to look at the whole picture and you have to know at least a little bit about the issue's background- I believe Rebecca's stance is what public choice economists (ie, Bryan Caplan :) ) would associate with "rational irrationality."
Even worse, I read a blog where the writer agreed with a proposal in, I believe Fairfax County, to raise the minumum wage up to about $12/hour from the approximate $6 it is now. Because that's a "living wage" and so more people would be able to work and afford to live in Fairfax.
Argh!
Regarding the mechanic- Why couldn't he have just admitted that he had no idea but then said that the freon would probably last somewhere between "time 1 and time 2" There's a huge difference between "tommorow" and "a year." You'd think that he'd have been able to gauge a slighter narrower time frame. I don't know much about cars, but it seems like he should have been able to make a better estimation than that.
Posted by: Melissa at Apr 13, 2006 11:10:07 AM
Hurm. With all due respect to Tyler and Bryan, one of the things that's
most frustrating about economists is their assumption that only
economists believe in or understand probability or statistics. There's
nothing in what Bryan asked that made it distinctively *economic;* and
"non-economists" is a weirdly overinclusive category for the people
being complained about!
Posted by: Jacob T. Levy at Apr 13, 2006 12:37:48 PM
Jacob, what is the chance a great political philosopher would not suffer from the same defect?
Posted by: Tyler Cowen at Apr 13, 2006 1:54:06 PM
The chance that even a great political philosopher *would* suffer from the inability to either grasp or really believe in probability: unity before and including Hobbes, very high (70% plus or minus 20%) from the 18th century through the late 20th; non-negligible even now. I know one living first-rate political philosopher who wouldn't know a confidence interval if it bit him on his chi-squared, and suspect it's true of a half-dozen others. Among English-language trained political philosophers younger than age 40, probably <15%.
But it wasn't on behalf of my own profession that I was protesting; we're halfway humanities people. But there are other pure social scientists besides economists. See, there are these people called political scientists, and sociologists, and demographers. For that matter, there are statisticians and mathematicians and natural scientists of various sorts, all of whom are as likely as an economist to be willing to think in terms of probabilities, confidence, and quantifiable uncertainty...
Posted by: Jacob T. Levy at Apr 14, 2006 12:21:29 AM
If you asked someone who had a proper grounding in probability, rather than the mickey mouse version we economists learn, then he might say that there was no well-formed distribution of failure times in this case or that the expectation did not exist, and when you started saying "but you've got to be able to make a guess!", he would probably start laughing at you.
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