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What is the most absurd claim you believe?
Bryan Caplan says my most absurd view is philosophic pragmatism. I say Robin Hanson's most absurd view is to overestimate the chance we all become uploads in the next century. I am not sure Alex has a most absurd view, except perhaps his notion of what my most absurd view is (hint: "one in twenty").
What is your most absurd view? Comments are open. Yes your comment should be crazy but serious too. It should refer to a view which you actually hold, but many other smart people consider untenable and bizarre.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on March 21, 2006 at 07:15 AM in Education | Permalink
Comments
I am in favor of the end of the Offside Rule in Football (soccer).
Posted by: "Danielrone" Vasques at Mar 21, 2006 7:20:13 AM
That the axiom of choice is untrue.
Posted by: dsquared at Mar 21, 2006 7:28:24 AM
Oh, and that John Searle is substantially correct on all his important claims about the possibility of Turing Machines having intelligence.
Posted by: dsquared at Mar 21, 2006 7:29:17 AM
My top three absurd beliefs, in ascending order of absurdity:
Mathematical Platonism.
Good old-fashioned Bethamite hedonistic utilitarianism. (None of this preference-satisfaction nonsense for me. I embrace Nozick's experience machine!)
And every other day, I'm a Lewisean modal realist. This is in some degree of tension with my utilitarianism: and I worry about that.
Posted by: Brock at Mar 21, 2006 7:55:55 AM
That what we perceive to be the Universe and everything that's in it is really a simulation on a computer.
Obviously, it's inconsistent with dsquared's second crazy belief, but what experiment can we perform to disprove that hypothesis?
Posted by: Andy Wood at Mar 21, 2006 8:10:38 AM
That organized religion will atrophy in my lifetime.
Posted by: KipEsquire at Mar 21, 2006 8:32:51 AM
My only capitulation to superstition? I "knock on wood". Self-deception at its finest. I know it does nothing, but can't help myself during instances where "knocking on wood" should prevent an undesired (spoken) event from coming true. I will even go slightly out of my way to locate a piece of wood on which to knock. Thankfully, this is an infrequent practice.
Posted by: Shaun M. at Mar 21, 2006 8:35:06 AM
If there is a reason I "decide" to do something, then it's hard not to believe in predestination and (gulp) Spinoza's deus ex machina. That certainly affects (causes?) one's views on the meaning of life.
Posted by: EclectEcon at Mar 21, 2006 9:01:27 AM
I believe that, at times, our (current) mind receives information from our future mind ---yes, call it precognition. We interpret this input as (artictic or scientific) "creativity", knowing nothing about how to distinguish between deterministic creativity and precognition.
[If you're curious about the (crazy) physics behind this, click on the link under my name.]
There is a case to make about Robin Hanson circa 1988 receiving information from his own future mind (circa, say, November 2004) about political prediction markets and other societally important applications of related micro-market mechanisms.
As for his belief in (head) cryogenics and mind uploads (into computers), I read somewhere that he said there's only a 5% probability that it will work on him. Seems a *reasonable* over-estimation.
Posted by: Chris. F. Masse .COM at Mar 21, 2006 9:09:28 AM
That one is immodest, unbiased, or objective.
Posted by: efalken at Mar 21, 2006 9:17:34 AM
Kids have an incredible capacity for learning. If all children received talented instruction starting at a young age, then everyone's intellectual potential would be essentially unlimited.
Posted by: brian at Mar 21, 2006 9:26:55 AM
Abolish the death penalty and instead make killers and rapists do slave labor. That would really create an incentive not to kill...
Posted by: Eva Wolfberg at Mar 21, 2006 9:38:04 AM
I'm not superstitious, because it brings bad luck.
Posted by: PK at Mar 21, 2006 9:39:00 AM
That there is something about time, in the sense that we generally think of it, that we completely don't understand. I suspect that it may not even exist, but may be an illusion of consciousness.
Posted by: Derek Lowe at Mar 21, 2006 9:40:29 AM
I believe that left-wing politicians should be paid the minimum wage to show their solidarity with the poor.
Posted by: PK at Mar 21, 2006 9:43:26 AM
If a government is to return a tax wallet to its citizens, the history of the wallet trumps all ideas on the distribution of the wallet.
Posted by: disaggregated at Mar 21, 2006 9:44:41 AM
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We Scorpios don't believe in that Astrology stuff !
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Posted by: Kednall at Mar 21, 2006 9:49:40 AM
That at a deeply fundamental level, the universe makes no "sense". Or rather that the ability to accurately scale, measure, quantify, or even explain the universe has an eventual limit..
Broadly stated, we'll reach a point where all of our models "work" except they at least partially contradict most other models as well, meaning our ability to understand the universe hits an information breakdown.
Posted by: UberIcarus at Mar 21, 2006 9:51:09 AM
PK: Why just the left-wing ones? Put all the bastards on minimum wage.
Posted by: UberIcarus at Mar 21, 2006 9:52:52 AM
I believe that there is a decent chance that I will live for several hundred years.. Great topic, by the way.
Posted by: joshg at Mar 21, 2006 9:54:54 AM
Oh, and another thing: I also believe we're approaching a new form of economy (within 100-200 years give or take) which will neither resemble capitalism nor socialism.
Posted by: UberIcarus at Mar 21, 2006 9:56:26 AM
I believe that arming everyone would reduce the social damage due to crime. I think if the crime rate in an area is more than X, the government ought to issue everyone over 16 a shotgun.
Posted by: SamChevre at Mar 21, 2006 9:58:50 AM
P = NP
Posted by: James Grimmelmann at Mar 21, 2006 10:03:53 AM
I think that Gorbachev was a CIA operative.
Posted by: Pat L at Mar 21, 2006 10:18:26 AM
[That what we perceive to be the Universe and everything that's in it is really a simulation on a computer.]
You don't really believe this. (by which I mean, if it's true, then you don't really believe it, there's just a computer simulating you believing it).
Posted by: dsquared at Mar 21, 2006 10:19:14 AM
That the current system of American higher education (undergraduate, not graduate) will slowly crumble, like the British Empire. It will change into a system in which there is much more diversity in how students are taught, what they learn, and how their learning is measured.
Posted by: Seth Roberts at Mar 21, 2006 10:29:45 AM
I think the right to keep and bear arms will eventually be accepted throug
the world as the best way to prevent genocide.
Posted by: LIC at Mar 21, 2006 10:34:43 AM
I'm a Christian. How's that?
Posted by: Anderson at Mar 21, 2006 10:42:03 AM
There are some things which are just plain wrong.
Posted by: Jane Galt at Mar 21, 2006 10:47:32 AM
I believe that the uncertainty principle only tells us that instruments interfere with with observations. I also believe that Tyler can remove 'philosophical' from 'philosophical pragmatism' without making any difference.
Posted by: Dan K at Mar 21, 2006 10:49:14 AM
I have a suspicion that if there is a heaven, it is something like the notion of a collective unconscious.
P.S. I also agree with SamChevre and LIC re: arming citizens to prevent crime and genocide.
Posted by: Anne at Mar 21, 2006 10:52:04 AM
Like what joshg said -- that if you can make it
through the next 10-30 years, you'll be able to
live for as long as you want to.
Posted by: mobile at Mar 21, 2006 11:09:57 AM
That the whole "Dark Matter" idea was invented by scientists to explain data that they did not understand. I feel that it will eventually lose favor like the idea of the "ether" in past centuries.
And, that the NCAA basketball tournament does not necessarily determine the best college basketball team. Random chance could lead any team to lose one game, including the "best" team. This is not fair to that "best" team.
Posted by: Mike Hester at Mar 21, 2006 11:21:43 AM
That vengence and vendetta are perfectly acceptable alternatives to courts of law, and that individuals who practice each should be lauded, not prosecuted, by government authorities.
Posted by: hamilton at Mar 21, 2006 11:38:48 AM
Eventually, embassies/consulates will expand into mini-colonies/franchises on another country´s territory. Although without complete legal autonomy (no asylum seekers nor criminals on the run), these plots of land will be under the judicial, tax, and political system of the foreign land. For example, someone living and working in the "U.S.A." 100-square-mile enclave/franchise near Paris will be able to reap the tax advantages of living in the U.S. while also enjoying Paris. This "neo-colonization" will lead to exponentially expanded freedom of choice and thus diffusion of "superior" forms of culture (as chosen by the citizens of each country), greater efficiency in capital flows, and multiple incentives against war and toward free-market cooperation. Or, at least that would be the potential :).
Posted by: Sean at Mar 21, 2006 11:43:06 AM
My thought tends to be interconnected with a couple things. The Bible, and as a result, traditional Christianity will either be largely shown to be completely true, or exceedingly unreliable in the next 25 years. This is because there is largely a crunch time, approaching in terms of the state of Biblical prophecy and its ability for fulfillment, Israel could be attacked by a coalition including Iran and Russia which would largely agree with prophecy in Ezekiel. Additionally other prophecies would probably begin to show themselves reliabile within the same time.
Alternatively, if man escapes this planet, begins colonizing the moon and elsewhere and lifespans greatly increase (like Joshg's comment one I largely agree with), people will be begin to discount the Bible, if people start passing 120 regularly the curse of sin, will be harder to see.
Additionally, if man escapes the Earth, Armageddon would probably be seen as less of a threat.
Either way, it would definately (I think) be wise, to know what to look for and what to see, so that one can be in general confidence either way. (Said as a generally fundamentalist Bible Believing 6-day creationist).
Posted by: Joel B. at Mar 21, 2006 12:06:13 PM
Absurd beliefs? I have at least three.
* That current cryonics patients will be revived in the next 100 years (and that if I were to die and be cryopreserved, I personally would be revived) (1)
* That as many people will live on seasteads as on land in the next 150 years. (2)
* That formal mechanisms for secession are as important to good government as freedom of speech and the right to vote. (3)
(1) http://www.alcor.org/
(2) http://www.seastead.org/
(3) http://www.secession.net/
Posted by: Christopher Rasch at Mar 21, 2006 12:10:27 PM
(I would guess that most peopel would regard the seasteading claim to be the most absurd.)
Posted by: Christopher Rasch at Mar 21, 2006 12:13:31 PM
That if all illegal recreational drugs were legalized in America, it would make little or no difference in rates of addiction or rates at which teen-agers experiment with drugs.
That if all drugs, legal and illegal, medical or recreational or whatever, were available over-the-counter, the general health of the American population would improve, drug prices would fall, and pharmaceutical innovation would skyrocket. Some foolish individuals would suffer due to their lack of judgment, but most people would benefit.
Posted by: Thelonious_Nick at Mar 21, 2006 12:17:13 PM
I notice that dsquared is also apparently a Platonist. Who knew?
I have several:
- One more for radical life extension, except I expect to live "forever" -- i.e. until some inescapable catastrophic event comes along.
- Warren Buffet is a statistical artifact. (See Nassim Taleb.)
- Iran getting nuclear weapons is no big deal.
- Polycentric law. (A man can dream.)
- In connection with the above, virtual worlds are an untapped testing ground for exploring the state space of possible legal orders.
- Human brains are not equipped to answer most metaphysical or ontological questions.
- Utilitarianism is almost right, it just has the wrong unit.
Posted by: Matt McIntosh at Mar 21, 2006 12:17:41 PM
I agree with Hamilton--public justice is a backup to private vengeance, not a substitute (and certainly not a superior alternative).
Posted by: SamChevre at Mar 21, 2006 12:17:57 PM
That technological progress is exponential.
Posted by: ivc at Mar 21, 2006 12:21:07 PM
Any intelligent species capable of interstellar travel will be peaceful and inquisitive with no humanly unethical motives.
Posted by: Michael Giesbrecht at Mar 21, 2006 12:22:53 PM
That the Riemann Hypothesis is false.
Posted by: noto at Mar 21, 2006 12:26:51 PM
Most people I talk to think I'm an idiot for being against seatbelt laws. In general, most people don't understand why I seemingly value freedom for freedom's sake. If something is good to do, they think, why not pass a law mandating that action?
Also, my belief that the best response to global warming may be to plan for it's consequences rather than attempt to stop the warming is often met with wide-open jaws.
Posted by: Chris at Mar 21, 2006 12:30:44 PM
That the hot chick who hostesses at the Italian place down the street has a thing for me.
Posted by: art at Mar 21, 2006 12:41:43 PM
Anderson at 10:42 wins, in a sense. 'Credo quia absurdum est' wasn't just whistling Dixie.
Posted by: someguy at Mar 21, 2006 12:44:20 PM
1. I too am a Christian.
2. Contra Alex, Christianity and evolution are 100% compatible. IMHO anyone who believes differently either hasn't read the Bible or hasn't understood it.
3. Creationism should be considered heretical, since it is incompatible with the doctrine of divine omnipotence. If any actual scientific evidence for creationism were ever found, it would be evidence for a sloppy demiurge, not for the God of Abraham.
4. Contra the vengeance people above, I think most of the progress society has made in the last 1000 years is due to a shift away from private vengeance/trial by combat to the rule of law. No other change has led to as much improvement in human lives, and those societies today where violent vengeance is important demonstrate this.
Posted by: DK at Mar 21, 2006 12:52:45 PM
I'm going to get myself in trouble, because why digress on such an interesting topic, but contrary to DK, evolution poses serious threats to Christianity and rightly so. Original Sin, and the moral culpability of man through Adam is in contrast to the materialism of evolution. Either the entire universe in groaning under the weight of man's sin, or it is not.
Additionally, Christ himself preached on "from the beginning," he also treated Noah as a real legitimate person who came and through him the world was saved from the flood. Undermine those, and we are left wondering what has God created. Did he really create a world of death, pain, and suffering and call it good? Or did he create a world apart from that, and man's rebellion led to death. One allows Christianity the theological consistency it needs to be immensely appealing, the other, cause Christianity to be weighed down with doubts about God's true goodness, and nature.
How creationism should be heretical is beyond me. If God says he created the world a certain way, should I not believe him. In words he probably wrote himself closing with "These are the generations of Heaven and Earth."
Posted by: Joel B. at Mar 21, 2006 1:05:41 PM
Christ crucified.
For the word of the cross is folly to those who are perishing, but to us who are being saved it is the power of God. For it is written,
"I will destroy the wisdom of the wise,
and the discernment of the discerning I will thwart."
Where is the one who is wise? Where is the scribe? Where is the debater of this age? Has not God made foolish the wisdom of the world? For since, in the wisdom of God, the world did not know God through wisdom, it pleased God through the folly of what we preach to save those who believe. For Jews demand signs and Greeks seek wisdom, but we preach Christ crucified, a stumbling block to Jews and folly to Gentiles, but to those who are called, both Jews and Greeks, Christ the power of God and the wisdom of God. For the foolishness of God is wiser than men, and the weakness of God is stronger than men.
For consider your calling, brothers: not many of you were wise according to worldly standards, not many were powerful, not many were of noble birth. But God chose what is foolish in the world to shame the wise; God chose what is weak in the world to shame the strong; God chose what is low and despised in the world, even things that are not, to bring to nothing things that are, so that no human being might boast in the presence of God. He is the source of your life in Christ Jesus, whom God made our wisdom and our righteousness and sanctification and redemption. Therefore, as it is written, "Let the one who boasts, boast in the Lord."
Posted by: Bob Montgomery at Mar 21, 2006 1:07:28 PM
I believe that everything is happening right now. Time, the way see it does not exist.
Posted by: chartreuse at Mar 21, 2006 1:16:59 PM
Given whatever the natural limitation of human intelligence is, people are fundamentally as smart as they want to be.
Posted by: Edward at Mar 21, 2006 1:24:18 PM
Telling children that they can be whatever they want to be is bad advice.
Posted by: Ted Barlow at Mar 21, 2006 1:29:03 PM
I'm going to have to say the Real Bills Doctrine. Most textbooks give it one sentence saying it has been "thoroughly discredited" but I can't help but see this as a misunderstanding of what RBD proponents actually stated. Most of the substantive attacks against the Real Bills Doctrine are really aimed at what opponents of the RBD claimed the Real Bills Doctrine stated, not what it actually stated. I also find the Monetarist view incomplete and needlessly shallow. I won't make the arguments for it here, but needless to say that the arguments I have gotten into over it have been fairly intense with one graduate student at Harvard referring to me as "a blithering idiot" when he got a little too drunk.
Posted by: Josh at Mar 21, 2006 1:30:55 PM
"What is the most absurd claim you believe?"
Robots are stealing my luggage.
Posted by: eddie at Mar 21, 2006 1:36:40 PM
I will also cite myself for believing some version of potential human immortality. The particular form I cling to at any given time may vary, including radical life extension, uploading, some sort of spiritual existence beyond death, or through something like chartreuse's non-existence of time (hey, if all times exist "simultaneously," we never cease to exist).
I concur with the non-existence of dark matter and dark energy. They sound too much like, "They must exist or else the math won't work out." Sadly, I have no qualifications for having an opinion on that matter, nor for adhering to the hidden variable interpretation of quantum mechanics. I still find these less absurd than the previous paragraph, though.
Posted by: Zubon at Mar 21, 2006 1:39:49 PM
How can you self-identify an absurd view? If you truly thought it was absurd, you would abandon it. This is why Tyler's post is phrased as it is, "Bryan Caplan thinks my most absurd view is.. I think Robin Hanson's most absurd view is..."
So this question isn't really asking which if your views is oddest or most contrarian. Really you're asking what view do you think you think the evidence suggests one probability of truth (either very small or very high), you think they are wrong, but you can see why they might intelligently hold their position - but you just know better. For instance, just because many people believe Jesus rose from the dead and lives eternally doesn't at all indicate that I'd say my atheism is an absurd view. Now let's assume I am abducted by aliens, several times, of the course of 15 years and they do experiments on me, and I have very vivid memories of that happening. I might then say my most absurd view is that there is a high probability that aliens exist and are experimenting on humans. Clearly all evidence available now to me and everyone suggests this isn't true, but I have vivid, real, lasting memories of the abduction, of flying through space to their homeworld.
But really, I don't have any such experiences. So I can say that I hold no absurd views. I'm sure Tyler doesn't think philosophical pragmatism is absurd. If I thought they were absurd I would abandon them. What someone else thinks my most absurd view is, that's a different question entirely. I'm sure my father would say my most absurd view is that there is no God. Many would say that my belief that government hurts far more than it helps is my most absurd view. A friend thinks my most absurd view is that the benefits of weight training and eating with regard to nutrition outweigh the costs.
A more interesting question, perhaps, is this: What do you think the most absurd view is of the smartest people you know? The most absurd view of the people you are most likely to agree with? What do they think your most absurd view is? Why is there such disagreement? Robin would probably have a good self-deception answer to that. Certainly the least wild of his "14 wild ideas" is that contention that if even only a few of us sought truth, we would not disagree with each other.
Posted by: Zac at Mar 21, 2006 1:54:38 PM
Marbury v. Madison was wrongly decided. The Supreme Court is too inflexible an instrument to be entrusted with final authority in policy making matters (as a corrollary, it is impossible to seperate the policy making from deciding cases, so the only question is: Who laughs last?)
Posted by: Not the same Brock as before at Mar 21, 2006 1:56:45 PM
I have to chime in on the side of the immortals. I believe that I am a member of either the first generation to live forever, or the last to die.
OTOH, In the view of my friends and family, my most absurd belief may very well be my atheism.
Posted by: rcriii at Mar 21, 2006 2:05:08 PM
Zac, my initial response was similar to yours, but note that for the purposes of this exercise Tyler explicitly defines the 'absurdity' in question as: "It should refer to a view which you actually hold, but many other smart people consider untenable and bizarre." OK, it's not absurdity in the somewhat technical sense, but it's not a nonsensical question, either.
Posted by: mark at Mar 21, 2006 2:09:14 PM
Okay, Tyler said comments should be serious. So I'll offer that 1) anarcho-capitalism sounds great in theory, but we already have it in practice, 2) free banking sounds great in theory, but we already have it in practice, and 3) what we have in practice is as great as people think it should be in theory.
That, and Steve Martin should have died peacefully in his sleep after making Roxanne, his life's work complete.
Posted by: eddie at Mar 21, 2006 2:18:47 PM
Nurture, all the way.
Posted by: tps12 at Mar 21, 2006 2:28:24 PM
That praxeology is superior to empiricism.
Posted by: David at Mar 21, 2006 2:34:45 PM
The Comic Strip "Monty" is the best comic strip over the last 20 years, and certainly the most underrated artistic achievement of the last 20 years.
Posted by: Vanya_6724 at Mar 21, 2006 2:50:15 PM
I have 2. 1) That probabilities come in quanta (i.e. there is a smallest possible probability like a some quarks have the smallest possible electirc charge). 2) That one day we'll finally realize that human survival depends on the colonization of other planets and star systems, but by that time we will have used too much of our "fuel" to get us to another star system.
Posted by: Diogenes at Mar 21, 2006 3:02:55 PM
That there isn't anything wrong with marriages between more than two consenting adults, if they can work it out between themselves; that megadoses of Vitamin C really do work against disease by a mechanism that is more than simply remedying a deficiency; that people mean well; that hard work pays off; that children can be taken seriously; that the use of "they" in the singular with a singular verb, to indicate an individual of unknown gender, is the ONLY reasonable solution to the gendered pronoun problem in English.
Posted by: speedwell at Mar 21, 2006 3:10:43 PM
(reading back over) Oh, we're allowed to say crazy stuff so long as it's serious? Oh, well, in that case...
I believe that if such a thing as real artificial sentience ever comes into being, that we as a society and its engineers as its engenderers need to raise, treat, and love individuals possessing it just like any others of our children.
Posted by: speedwell at Mar 21, 2006 3:15:06 PM
What a fascinating thread. There are several interesting beliefs mentioned here, but I'm most intrigued by the number of commentators who believe in the imminence of something like immortality. I do think that within 50 years our medical technology will be such that people live substantially longer than they do now, but I don't quite believe immortality is around the bend so I don't guess I share this "absurd" belief, though perhaps I share an affinity for it.
I guess if I had to confess to having one absurd belief, it would be the "many worlds" or "multiverse" theory, which states that there are an infinite number of universes in which all possible realities since the beginning of time are expressed. Perhaps I should say I don't "believe" in it, so much as I don't dismiss it out of hand for as crazy as it sounds. At the very least I have an affinity for the theory.
Also, there just has to be life on other planets, right?
Posted by: Alexander Wolfe at Mar 21, 2006 3:18:19 PM
Northwestern will make it back to the Rose Bowl before I die, which is how I rationalized not going in 1996.
Posted by: Derek Scruggs at Mar 21, 2006 3:26:40 PM
Some variety of contractarian metaethics is true.
People speaking in favor of private vengeance (SamChevre and Hamilton), I'd just like to briefly restate what I read you as saying. Say your spouse or child or parent is murdered in a matter which you believe is unprovoked. You think it would be fine to kill the person who did this, and for what you seem to be good reasons, you believe that I did it. It would be fine for you to kill me. It is also proper for a court to look at your belief that I at some point in the past killed your spouse, and if the court finds that your belief was reasonable but false, that should be a complete defense (or should a trial not even be able to begin?). Finally, if one of my family members uncovers evidence persuasive to them that I am not the one who killed your spouse, it would be perfectly fine for them to either kill you or, if they don't know you killed me, some other person who they think did.
Do you also except preemptive or preventitive killings along the same lines?
Posted by: washerdreyer at Mar 21, 2006 3:28:06 PM
That a 1965 Dream Team starting Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Elgin Baylor, Jerry West, and Oscar Robertson with some bench guys like Willis Reed, Sam Jones, Gus Johnson, Jerry Lucas, and Hal Greer could have held their own against the 1992 Dream Team.
Posted by: tedm at Mar 21, 2006 3:29:36 PM
Psychiatry is in no way valid medicine, indeed not even valid science, and has done far more harm than good over the history of humanity. Basically the Thomas Szasz view, only more cynical. Out of all my unpopular views (mostly pedestrian libertarian fare) this gets the most raised eyebrows.
Posted by: Noah Yetter at Mar 21, 2006 3:29:43 PM
Psychiatry is in no way valid medicine, indeed not even valid science, and has done far more harm than good over the history of humanity.
Noah, didn't I see you on the Today Show? But you were shorter than I expected.
Posted by: Anderson at Mar 21, 2006 3:41:31 PM
I believe that if you go to the beach, but you do not give the ocean a chance to taste you, she will come take her taste when she chooses.
Posted by: Megan at Mar 21, 2006 3:55:02 PM
I believe that consciousness is primary reality not a derived phenomenon, everything else we see is the contents of Consciousness.
Posted by: Matthew Cromer at Mar 21, 2006 4:02:41 PM
That certain thinkers such as Marx and Rawls and even Nozick are Schelling Points for large numbers of people in the geography of political philosophy. Substance doesn't matter so much as visibility.
The corollary to this is to figure out how to demolish them or shift them or explain the lodestone effect in thought.
Posted by: Rue Des Quatre Vents at Mar 21, 2006 4:11:53 PM
DK-
It is reasonable to me that you are correct, but I suspect that your viewpoint is widely held (i.e., others do not view your (4) as absurd). I've posted mine because I didn't expect anybody to agree with it. That somebody does makes me a little suspicious... is it not absurd enough? I thought it would be.
Be well,
-h
Posted by: hamilton at Mar 21, 2006 4:12:38 PM
washerdreyer,
I have not seriously considered any of the questions that you raise, as I do not seriously discuss this topic. See my above reply to DV for the reason that this is the case. If I come up with a good response before this thread goes cold, I'll let you know.
be well,
-h
Posted by: hamilton at Mar 21, 2006 4:18:31 PM
The Quick and the Dead was a great movie. Reign of Fire is also a great movie. The twist at the end of The Sixth Sense was just okay and was the best part of an otherwise weak movie (although better than what I could do). Out of the last four films by Shymalan, Unbreakable and The Village were definitely the strongest, followed by the decent Signs, followed by the not so great The Sixth Sense. The first season of Lost was much better than the fourth season of 24.
Posted by: Eric Slusser at Mar 21, 2006 4:21:37 PM
That I went to college, worked incredibly hard, graduated (econ), and did it all to only end up as a clerk.
Posted by: sdfsadf at Mar 21, 2006 4:50:29 PM
One more, maybe more absurd than my first: That Ishtar is actually a pretty funny movie.
Posted by: David at Mar 21, 2006 5:02:54 PM
Scientology is not inherently more ludicrous than any other major or minor religion--the odd aspects (spaceships and the like) are simply an artifact of the date of its origin, and they seem odd simply because they are different from the tenets of the ancient religions. A modern rewrite of the New Testament might have included the cryogenic preservation of Jesus' head.
Moreover, Scientology's reliance on celebrity adherents to bring in new members who drive the religion's revenue is more benign than most religions' historical methods of growth, which tended to be based on state coercion. All religions--including Scientology--must provide some value to willing practitioners, even if the cost appears high to the uninitiated.
Posted by: aaron at Mar 21, 2006 5:18:57 PM
In 200 years, man will have walked on Earth, the Moon, Mars and its moons...and that's it.
Posted by: vc at Mar 21, 2006 5:34:38 PM
Washerdreyer,
I would NOT hold that my actions in killing someone were justified if I reasonably, but wrongly, thought they were guilty of killing a family member. I would say that such a belief would be a mitigating factor in a court of law--maybe if it was "any reasonable person would have thought so", it would move the crime from murder to provoked manslaughter--but certainly not a complete defense.
My position is much more minimal; assuming that person X deserves penalty Y for action Z, it is better if that penalty is administered by the victim's friends and family than by uninvolved strangers.
Posted by: SamChevre at Mar 21, 2006 5:41:24 PM
Math is somehow not as timeless and unattached to human contingency as it's lauded to be.
Posted by: Lee at Mar 21, 2006 5:48:36 PM
That the timing with which one attains some (not all) physical manifestations of maturity is a matter of volition in that it is related to becoming settled in one's identity, i.e., reaching a point in one's personal development subsequent to which one is very unlikely to change dramatically. This is of course an evolved mechanism: these manifestations of maturity -- many of which occur in the face -- serve as signals to potential mates that it is now more-or-less safe to approach.
Posted by: Jason Briggeman at Mar 21, 2006 5:52:30 PM
That consciousness is fundamentally inexplicable.
- Josh
Posted by: Wild Pegasus at Mar 21, 2006 5:53:33 PM
That morality is functional in nature.
That true pacifism is wholly immoral.
Posted by: Bernard Guerrero at Mar 21, 2006 6:01:47 PM
When things go the way I expect them to, I spend a few seconds convinced that I'm psychic.
Posted by: brooke at Mar 21, 2006 6:33:57 PM
Historical determinism (no trackback available)
Posted by: Jonathan Wilde at Mar 21, 2006 6:48:30 PM
Noah, didn't I see you on the Today Show? But you were shorter than I expected.
Anderson, it is a great tragedy that the great scam known as Scientology chooses to present as its public face enmity with the great scam known as Psychiatry. I assure you that the Szasz view of Psychiatry owes nothing to the vile intellectual offspring of L. Ron Hubbard.
Posted by: Noah Yetter at Mar 21, 2006 7:12:58 PM
That nanotechnology is as likely to kill us all as to make us live forever (and that both likelihoods are high).
That people are disappointingly easy to understand. When they look complex, it is usually because the observer is considering a question with no answer.
That education and wealth will slowly but inexorably reduce corruption in developing countries.
That even when I distinctly remember putting my keys in my backpack, I should check my backpack before locking the door.
Posted by: Jeff Brown at Mar 21, 2006 7:33:20 PM
In lieu of trackback...
Posted by: Gabriel Mihalache at Mar 21, 2006 7:41:37 PM
I'd say it's a three-way tie between act utilitarianism, deterministic sociobiology, and IR functionalism.
Posted by: Minipundit at Mar 21, 2006 7:42:44 PM
I believe cultural change has been slowing down, not accelerating, and that life in a century or two will not differ greatly from the way it is now in developed countries.
Posted by: Slocum at Mar 21, 2006 7:58:30 PM
That the United States will begin expanding geographically again, first through Canada and the Caribbean, then to the remainder of the Anglosphere and then Latin America, and eventually the entire world will be one political entity.
That time moves at different speeds for different people at different ages or even moments in their life, and there is a way to control this that is learnable.
That if a Republican wins in '08, Bush, despite my opposition to so many of his actions, will be remembered by history as a Lincoln or a Roosevelt. If a Dem wins, all bets are off.
Posted by: right at Mar 21, 2006 8:02:44 PM
Using the definition of things I truly believe but many smart people dismiss as "absurd"
1) That life is explicitly meaningless, or more generally, life is what you make of it, and that we're not here as some sort of well-planned divine purpose nor are we players in some large intergalactic conspiracy etc.
2) That Noah didn't build an arc that held a pair of every living creature inside it while the entire world flooded.
3) That the Olsen twins and Linday Lohen are not that hot...for chrissake, eat something.
Posted by: Chad K. at Mar 21, 2006 8:04:55 PM
Wigner was right.
Posted by: j mct at Mar 21, 2006 8:08:36 PM
That physicists have it all wrong. They think that space and time are two aspects of the same thing. And they think that matter and energy are two forms of the same thing.
I think that all four of these elements are aspects of the same thing. Subatomic particles don't move faster than planets; they are just so small and low in mass that they exist at the other end of the time scale.
(Plus, you know I'm crazy 'cause, like David, I liked Ishtar, too).
Posted by: George Gaskell at Mar 21, 2006 8:12:55 PM
....That at least a few of the UFO sightings of the 20th century were not explainable by pedestrian phenomena.
Posted by: Bruce Cleaver at Mar 21, 2006 8:24:27 PM
In lieu of trackback...
Posted by: triticale at Mar 21, 2006 8:37:18 PM
I appreciate the responses from the two vengeance theorists.
Posted by: washerdreyer at Mar 21, 2006 8:51:26 PM
Natural selection for reproductive fitness is an insufficient mechanism to account for the capacity to do mathematics.
At least as a default position, everything should be unregulated. In policy deicisions, the burden of proof should fall on those who wish to impose new regulations.
Political leanings are an extention of personality traits that are mostly established by the time a person turns five.
Posted by: James at Mar 21, 2006 9:02:48 PM
I believe Shaq will win another championship
Posted by: Kevin at Mar 21, 2006 9:23:05 PM
Natural selection for reproductive fitness is an insufficient mechanism to account for the capacity to do mathematics.
I think natural selection explains it. I suspect our big brain developed as part of the pressure to capture food by throwing things. Running down a quarry and throwing a stick or rock at it requires a tremendous increase in cognitive ability, not the least of which is a capacity for making predictions.
Natural selection didn't produce a brain so that it could do math. It produced a brain that could imagine a future set of conditions, on which we could then act (in order to achieve them).
Once this set of pressures, in effect, paid for the added brain capacity, it ended up being used for other purposes.
Posted by: George Gaskell at Mar 21, 2006 9:26:44 PM
My absurd claim is:
Artificial General Intelligence with access to its own source code will recursively self-improve so fast as to achieve near-total control of local physical reality after a modest duration of time.
Posted by: Michael Anissimov at Mar 21, 2006 9:36:27 PM
That both children (of any age) and felons (even while incarcerated) should be allowed to vote.
Posted by: Christopher M at Mar 21, 2006 9:43:28 PM
I believe that Wayne Newton is a FTM transsexual, or a female crossdresser.
Posted by: Hellbound Alleee at Mar 21, 2006 10:26:01 PM
Ex-vitro birth (ie, human gestation in some sort of mechanical artifice outside the womb) and its effects will become a major factor in world politics in the next 20 or 30 years. The country most likely to try this sort of thing initially would be Japan, followed by Russia...
Posted by: Foobarista at Mar 21, 2006 10:43:05 PM
That people who believe we're on the verge of immortality are greatly underestimating the complexity and inherent limitations of the human body, or greatly overestimating our current understanding of biology, and most likely both.
Also, that we are a looooong was from realizing any of the more earth-shattering benefits touted for nanotechnology.
Posted by: qetzal at Mar 21, 2006 11:02:08 PM
Top 5:
5. That Government regulation of markets is necessary in some cases.
4. That some things can actually be known about the past.
3. That miracles are possible.
2. That Jesus of Nazareth was crucified on a Roman cross at the hands of Pilate, fufilling his own foretelling of his death for the sins of the world.
1. That Jesus of Nazareth was resurrected into a spiritual body and is presently in this form, awaiting his return to make the world right.
Posted by: Samuel Meyer at Mar 22, 2006 12:06:59 AM
That nothing I believe is absurd.
Posted by: Michael Blowhard at Mar 22, 2006 12:58:25 AM
The earliest Christians did not believe that the Christ had recently been born on (or had visited) earth; rather they believed, among other things, that man's salvation was attained through a sacrifice he performed in heaven. (Much evidence for this can be found merely by carefully reading the New Testament book of Hebrews, on its own terms -- without automatically assuming that it agrees with the gospels or other New Testament books.)
Also, the book of Revelations tells what the author thought would occur around the time of Jesus's future first coming to Earth. (It is not until the second century that any Christian writings refer to his coming as a second coming or a return.)
Citing more evidence is beyond the scope of this comment. But you can visit: The Jesus Puzzle
Posted by: Wayne VanWeerthuizen at Mar 22, 2006 1:36:59 AM
But if you want really absurd check this out the series of books: "History: Fiction or Science".
(And to be clear, I do not agree with Fomenko's thesis. I just thought it would be appropriate to mention it in this thread.)
Posted by: Wayne VanWeerthuizen at Mar 22, 2006 1:48:57 AM
Commendations on Eddie's interesting point on anarcho-capitalism. I'm hold such a mess of views that are generally believed to be absurd that certainly no one of them outweighs all the others so my most absurd view must be that I am generally right when I dissent from consensus beliefs. Elaboration on this view includes the ludicrous delusion that I am trying to reach accurate beliefs and that essentially no-one else is. Supporting delusions include the belief that I in fact *have* a small pool of people with whom I consistantly agree regarding facts without a cult-like dynamic being in effect.
The view that I hold in the face of the most intelligent opposition is probably that one should not aggregate the utilities associated with entities associated with identical qualia, as the utilities actually derive from the qualia's information content and thus duplication is simply redundant reference to a single phenomenon. This appearently sacrifices ethics (and norms in general) in the case of an infinite universe, but so many philosophical positions appearently sacrifice normitivity that it's hard to worry about one more doing so.
Posted by: michael vassar at Mar 22, 2006 3:31:58 AM
I hope this thread keeps going.
I believe that there exists living in the world a species more closely related to humans than chimps or bonobos. I also believe that the Yeti is a real phenomenon, but is probably just a bear.
Posted by: joshg at Mar 22, 2006 8:25:02 AM
String theory, gravitons, magnetic monopoles, nanotechnological universal assemblers, fusion power, space elevators, agricultural subsidies, the university system, and democracy are deal ends.
Posted by: bhauth at Mar 22, 2006 8:26:30 AM
*dead* ends.
Posted by: bhauth at Mar 22, 2006 8:27:18 AM
Oh yeah and that without the second amendment there might not be any democracies in the world today.
Posted by: joshg at Mar 22, 2006 8:28:00 AM
"That I went to college, worked incredibly hard, graduated (econ), and did it all to only end up as a clerk."
Same here. Didn't work so hard in college actually, now that I think about it.
Most absurd thing I believe - That my wife will actually make a decision I can depend on.
Posted by: rmark at Mar 22, 2006 9:23:36 AM
We should regulate the realty industry more tightly than we regulate the securities industry.
Posted by: Bob Dobalina at Mar 22, 2006 9:38:17 AM
That if everyone just knew enough economic theory and history, that a classical liberal tsunami would wash over the land and we would prosper like never before. Which is why I read this blog.
Oh, and also that Tyler will eventually come to admit that football (soccer) is the greatest game ever.
Posted by: Eric H at Mar 22, 2006 10:15:25 AM
Right, there are techniques for controlling the subjective time rate in Neurolinguistic Programming and in hypnosis.
My absurd beliefs, or at least some of them:
Open borders would be tremendously advantageous, and that immigration restrictions will eventually be considered nearly as immoral as slavery is now.
People can't think clearly when they're being insulted, and it is therefore important to be polite.
You can't predict much about the behavior of people in a religion by studying their holy book(s). You'd do better to view the religion as a culture and study the people.
Fatness/leaness should be viewed as mostly as individual variation rather than a moral issue. There's a substantial range of fat percentages which are irrelevent to health. Most efforts to lose weight do not produce a net improvement in quality of life--that's why they fail.
Physical coordination can be improved.
Most people do more good than harm.
Most beliefs that the world is getting worse are actually nostalgia for when your knees didn't hurt.
Posted by: Nancy Lebovitz at Mar 22, 2006 10:52:55 AM
I agree with the thoughts on radical life extension becoming available within my lifetime, but with the caveat that few people will be able to afford it.
Posted by: Doug G. at Mar 22, 2006 10:59:45 AM
Bernard Guerrero,
You are spot on. I hope that in your circles these are not truly held to be absurd beliefs.
Posted by: murphy at Mar 22, 2006 11:28:02 AM
I believe that all of us, no matter what evil we do, go to Heaven. I believe God's infinite mercy and love far exceed any deeds we can commit. And yes, I do believe that Adolf Hitler (or insert your least favorite dead person) is 'up there' in Heaven right now. Perhaps he's still trying to make sense of the situation, and how far short of the mark he fell.
And that's why we should practice love down here: not to avoid Hell, but simply to reduce culture shock later.
Posted by: Ben Ostrowsky at Mar 22, 2006 11:54:27 AM
I believe that if either the Israelis OR the Palestinians, unliaterally, were to start behaving themselves, it would make peace and justice possible in the Middle East. No more bombs, no more breaking treaties, no more retaliatory razing of homes, no more stoning of guards or torture of prisoners. Whatever. Either side could break the cycle.
Posted by: Kate Y. at Mar 22, 2006 12:05:35 PM
I believe that within a generation or so, the theory of evolution will be discredited (or more politely, superseded) on purely scientific grounds.
Not that it will be replaced by "scientific creationism" or anything else religious -- but the contradictions between the theory's predictions and facts from the fossil and other sources will eventually become to substantial to be ignored.
This sounds so absurd to most people that I feel he need to post this under my pseudonym to protect my future employability.
Posted by: Different River at Mar 22, 2006 12:20:36 PM
I totally agree with the very first comment (abandon offsides).
Besides that, I believe that the practice of companies providing guidance to Wall Street, and focusing on/caring about analysts expectations, is fundamentally wrong and counter productive. Do the right thing for the long term health of the business, Wall Street analysts be damned.
Posted by: Seth at Mar 22, 2006 1:05:13 PM
That chances are good that any extra-terrestrials who travel to earth will wipe us out thinking, "It's a shame to have to do this, but if these humans treat one another so cruelly, what will they eventually do to the friendly bunny people of nearby Scrandor?"
Posted by: ferd at Mar 22, 2006 1:20:17 PM
I believe we shoud abolish direct election of anyone representing more than a few hundred people, and replace that system by election of local (town or neighborhood) councils, who then elect the next higher level of govt, and so on up to the congress and the president. Oh, and that war powers should only be granted to the president for a few days, after which power reverts to a necessarily bi-partison senate committee.
Posted by: Jack O'Neill at Mar 22, 2006 2:38:28 PM
Three of the things I believe in, that are frequently ridiculed, are:
peak oil,
global warming,
"former United States."
I think that the war in Iraq will hasten the collapse of the US, and that there will be some Yeltsin figure standing on top of a tank saying "Former United States." I also think that bush will declare martial law before the 2008 election and end up being the final president of the former USA.
While I don't believe that time travel is possible (if it *were* possible, the sixties would have been overrun by tourists), the future is looking a lot more like John Titor's stories.
Posted by: Peter at Mar 22, 2006 2:39:50 PM
(1) In world of enforceable contracts, contracts for slavery and indentured servitude should be allowed.
(2) American football is a greater intellectual problem than essentially every other human amusement. Chess, by contrast, is fundamentally no more intellectually nteresting than normaly 3x3 tic-tac-toe.
(3) In 100 years, George W. Bush will be held in at least as much esteem as Theodore Roosevelt is now.
Posted by: Tom at Mar 22, 2006 5:05:44 PM
It is nice and very refreshing that so many people have contributed with interesting and polite comments. I find it odd that no one has mentioned my version of an absurd belief so far.
No one holds beliefs because beliefs are they are defined do not exist in any meaningful sense. We use the word only to provide a sense of narrative continuity to our decisions and actions.
Posted by: am at Mar 22, 2006 5:34:48 PM
I believe that Earth is the only place in the universe where life exists. (FYI I'm an atheist).
Posted by: Pearl Yonick at Mar 22, 2006 7:50:12 PM
In no particular order:
Instant replay in the NFL is an absolute abomination, especially since they get it wrong 30% to 40% of the time anyway.
Pedophiles are treated too harshly, particularly with the registration requirements (particularly those who were sentenced before registration laws were passed).
I'm not a smoker, but the ostracization of smokers and the unconscionable tax burden put on them are outrageous. Not to mention the state-sponsored extortion racket perpetrated against the tobacco companies.
Police should follow the speed limit and drive on the right, and if they don't they had better be going to a legitimate emergency and have their lights on.
The redistricting process is far and away the biggest problem with our political system.
There's more...
Posted by: jsmith at Mar 22, 2006 7:58:28 PM
I know I'm a bit late with this...
And this might not particularly fit the prompt...
But, caveats aside, I think the American nation-state will fall within my lifetime (I'm now 19).
(The more I think about it, it doesn't seem that absurd; but that may just be my perspective talking.)
Posted by: tom at Mar 22, 2006 8:49:29 PM
1. There is merit in changing some prison sentences for particular crimes to a physical punishment, like lashes with a cane. Physical punishment (or torture) AFTER a person has been found guilty of a crime strikes me as also having deterrent effect while being cheaper and healthier and more humane than keeping people in prison for years. Loss of human capital amongst convicted criminals would be lower, and it would reduce prisoner rape if less people are in prisons - a very cruel and arbitrary feature of our current system. Obviously some people, e.g. murderous psychopaths need to be locked up for the safety of the rest of us, but I see major cost-savings from pain rather than prison as a punishment. Attendance at rehabilition and education programmes etc could be provided as a condition of parole.
2. Coffee smells terrible and tastes nearly as bad as it smells.
Posted by: Tracy W at Mar 22, 2006 9:39:51 PM
tom - I know a guy on LiveJournal (selenite) who is expecting an actual civil war in the U.S. That's pretty absurd, isn't it?
Posted by: Noumenon at Mar 22, 2006 9:52:34 PM
I believe Judaism will dissappear as a practiced religion in my lifetime, after Israel and NYC are nuked. It will be replaced by a cryptojudaic movement in the evangelical and Catholic churches.
I believe the majority of national legislation, and judicial findings since 1900 to be unconstitutional.
I believe you can find better bread in Paris, TX than in Paris, France.
I believe in ghosts.
I believe Heaven and Hell work more or less as depicted in the move "Constantine".
Posted by: kevinm at Mar 22, 2006 10:12:14 PM
Tracy W. said: 2. Coffee smells terrible and tastes nearly as bad as it smells.
Now that's absurd.
Posted by: qetzal at Mar 22, 2006 10:26:56 PM
1. The possibility of AI.
2. Life extension of some sort -- better medicine, uploading, cyborgization (aka "mobile artificial life support for your brain")
3. Infanticide by parents isn't a big deal.
4. Drugs should be legalized.
5. Notwithstanding AI and life extension, most notions of "the Singularity" are bunk, though there are some I'd defend.
6. Life probably exists on other worlds, but we're the first technological species within millions of light-years.
7. Government can be a good thing, including universal health care.
8. American violent crime rates owe more to the culture of Americans than to our gun ownership.
Posted by: Damien at Mar 22, 2006 10:51:05 PM
TB: Absurd Sex, Suicide, Migration and Ugly Apple
Posted by: Mike Linksvayer at Mar 23, 2006 12:46:37 AM
That a shift to a drastically more libertarian society would usher in an era of prosperity and technological progress vastly superior to anything we've seen yet.
Posted by: Joe at Mar 23, 2006 1:16:50 AM
I think that in a few centuries the idea of cities/regions being bound inescapably to countries will be seen the same way that serfs being bound inescapably to a given lord is seen today.
Or to put it in another way, countries/regions will eventually be able to freely vote themselves out of (and into) participation in the national life of any state they desire, the same way that employees can nowadays choose to quit their jobs and seek employment elsewhere.
Posted by: Aris Katsaris at Mar 23, 2006 1:45:56 AM
Another ersatz trackback. Excerpt (one of three absurd beliefs):
"That trackbacks can be saved as a means of communication between blogs"
Can we stay the course in the Global War on Trackback Spam?
Posted by: Jim Hu at Mar 23, 2006 3:37:05 AM
I believe in the "United States of Europe" becoming a reality in a near future. I have very little support on this issue, hélas.
I'm also convinced it is possible to do a very good movie with Frank Herbert's Dune novels. Lynch's 1983 version was awful.
Posted by: Duncan at Mar 23, 2006 3:49:04 AM
The Force
Posted by: Dave at Mar 23, 2006 5:55:29 AM
Kurt Cobain was murdered by Courtney Love
We will defeat cancer and ageing within my lifetime.
Posted by: cizzla at Mar 23, 2006 8:39:28 AM
I have two:
1- That sex (not sexual orientation) is not a discrete binary variable, but a continuum between -what we refer to as- male and female.
2- That there is a good reason for posting this here.
Posted by: "Mario Moreno 'Cantinflas'" at Mar 23, 2006 11:25:43 AM
1. The baseball strike of 1994-1995 was due to collusion by the American teams to deny the Expos a World Series win. The Blue Jays had won the World Series the two previous years, and the Expos were on pace to take it all. Neither Canadian team had/has been in the running since.
2. Just as important as the minimum wage, there should be a maximum wage. I'm sorry, but I do not believe any CEO is worth more than $1 million per year, let along multiple millions. I just don't buy it.
Posted by: bartkid at Mar 23, 2006 12:22:50 PM
I believe any post on this thread longer than four lines isn't worth reading.
Posted by: mystery at Mar 23, 2006 2:36:14 PM
"I'm sorry, but I do not believe any CEO is worth more than $1 million per year, let along multiple millions. I just don't buy it."
Nobody has made the right argument to you before, that a CEO's million-dollar salary is just the "tip" on a hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars revenue "meal" that could not possibly have been placed on the director's "board" without his "cooking and serving." At least I know that is absolutely true of the company I work for, and that's not an "absurd belief." I could back that up with adequate proof (but would rather keep my place of work private; suffice to say it's a competitor of Halliburton's, and probably a few of you have guessed it anyway).
Posted by: speedwell at Mar 23, 2006 2:43:02 PM
"People can't think clearly when they're being insulted, and it is therefore important to be polite."
Nancy... how about, "People can't think clearly when they're being insulted, and it is therefore often convenient to be insulting."
Slytherin beats Griffindor, heh :)
Posted by: speedwell at Mar 23, 2006 2:45:08 PM
After the gospel of Christ, the commentary of the scottish enlightenment (Hume, Smith, Reid et al) saved and redeemed human life.
Posted by: caveatBettor at Mar 23, 2006 3:01:13 PM
Michael Blowhard wins!
Posted by: Jason Malloy at Mar 23, 2006 4:28:05 PM
. . .and my 'absurd' belief is that humans are the only intelligent creatures in the entire universe. This one is funny because the opposite and everything in between are just as absurd.
(Also, this seems awfully close to Edge's 2005 question: What do you believe is true even though you cannot prove it?)
Posted by: Jason Malloy at Mar 23, 2006 4:47:09 PM
I'm late, but my absurd belief is that god really doesn't play dice with the universe. It doesn't matter how many quantum physicists show me that he apparently does, all their theories sound just straight-up nutso to me.
Posted by: Mike at Mar 23, 2006 8:07:45 PM
That I don't have to read The Da Vinci Code to conclude that it's a bad book.
That 21 Grams was not a good movie.
That having been crucified isn't praiseworthy at all, especially if you intented to be resurrected later on.
Posted by: Bill at Mar 23, 2006 8:19:01 PM
Global Warming
The deceleration of advancement of civilization despite the aceleration of advancement of technology.
Posted by: Scott at Mar 24, 2006 8:23:39 AM
That there is hope to reverse gerrymandering (in the US) without resorting to physical violence.
Posted by: Nathan Zook at Mar 24, 2006 9:41:32 AM
That I could have been two people. Or even five.
Posted by: Micah at Mar 24, 2006 1:33:21 PM
That nothing I believe is absurd.
(OK, I don't think I really believe that. I don't think I do.)
Posted by: Jamie at Mar 24, 2006 3:42:35 PM
I believe I exist to perform one important functions in my life; alas I have no idea what that is or whether or not I have done it yet.
Posted by: Andrew Ian Dodge at Mar 24, 2006 4:29:51 PM
Drinking while driving should most certainly not be a crime. Drunk driving should be, but certainly not at 0.8% BAC.
Posted by: johnson at Mar 24, 2006 7:55:28 PM
I believe a lot of absurd things I suppose, but one particularly relevant here is:
Money is just a social idea and has no true value. In the modern world, it exists as the most powerful social control keeping the masses silenced and poor. 47% of the people on this planet survive on less than $2 each day, and this percentage rises every day. 80% of the money in circulation is controlled by less than 3% of the population, and this percentage drops each day.
Money is perceived to have value because of an expectation of future growth allowing for the debt that it represents to be paid off by another idea, governments (governments that by and large are technically bankrupt). Soon, humanity will see the true (lack of) value of money, as water, oil, food, and clean air become limited commodities. The resulting hyperinflation and global economic market collapse will give rise to new systems of distribution and we will forever leave behind the ridiculous notion that capitalism and communism are the only possible alternatives. Perhaps, *gasp*, some day people will contribute to society not because of material reward, but because they feel it is the right thing to do.
Posted by: Roger Kint at Mar 25, 2006 5:13:37 AM
1 That in an anarchist world, there would be some governance organizations that function almost exactly like today's nation states..
2 That I will write one (and one only) memorable book in my present life.
3 That the United States is the greatest threat to freedom in this world.
PS: Maybe the last one isn't a weird thing to believe.
Posted by: ateleia at Mar 25, 2006 5:51:34 AM
ateleia, these are supposed to be beliefs that aren't believed by other smart people. Your #3 is believed by the majority of the academy, and lots of others.
My absurd belief is that the United States has done more good for more people than any nation or people in the history of the world.
Posted by: frank at Mar 25, 2006 8:56:49 AM
"Perhaps, *gasp*, some day people will contribute to society not because of material reward, but because they feel it is the right thing to do."
Whew, you've got me beat out by orders of magnitude, Roger. That does sound absurd. :^)
Posted by: Bernard Guerrero at Mar 26, 2006 1:04:48 PM
I am a university professor who believes deeply in the Spence signalling model.
Also I believe that practicing law should be a crime.
Posted by: DB at Mar 26, 2006 3:11:49 PM
I do not believe that the evidence supports Evolution AND I am not a Creationist.
Posted by: The Wine Commonsewer at Mar 26, 2006 4:33:39 PM
1.) I believe that all humans have an immense capacity for good which few if any will ever realize.
2.) While medical technology will most likely expand the lifespans of many individuals, I believe that no human achievement will ever make anyone live forever (barring parallel universes and an afterlife).
3.) I believe that the "I before E" rule in spelling should be either completely reversed, or completely stripped of any exceptions, such that "Their" should be spelled "thier." I and E should always follow one another in the same order.
4.) I believe that we are in greater danger of nuclear war (albeit probably not complete M.A.D.) now than at any point during the existence of the U.S.S.R.
5.) I believe that poverty and war (and probably taxes) will always exist. Human institutions can and hopefully will improve, but I do not believe that human nature will.
Posted by: TheCous at Mar 26, 2006 9:29:28 PM
A "White" history month sounds fair to me.
Posted by: Jim at Mar 26, 2006 9:32:24 PM
I believe that there is such a thing as reality.
Posted by: Hanmeng at Mar 27, 2006 2:09:44 PM
People (as caterpillar is to butterfly) are just a transitionary form of intelligence which will give birth to the singularity and gray goo which will signal the end of people, but that's not a bad thing because it'll bring the Gaia consciousness.
Posted by: brendo at Mar 27, 2006 11:26:58 PM
Pseudo-trackback:
In my case, it's got to be the persistent belief that given sufficient evidence that the status quo isn't working, the system will be forced to change. It's absurd because time and again, just when you think that the fantasy has got to pop, it squirts out through your fingers just enough to relieve the pressure, like trying to squeeze a water balloon.
http://www.thewuestefelds.com/blog/?p=19
Posted by: Chris Wuestefeld at Mar 28, 2006 5:34:11 PM
That it doesn't matter whether Barry Bonds took steroids.
That Pete Rose is a much worse offender against Baseball than any PED user.
I agree with jsmith above that sex-offender registries seem overly harsh, especially if the criminal has "paid their debt to society".
I disagree that offsides in and of itself is a bad thing, it is just officiated so poorly.
Posted by: Eric at Mar 29, 2006 1:07:58 PM
This is also a pseudo trackback, but stealthily.
Anyhoo, good question. I'm pretty sure my most absurd view is that it's not in the U.S. interest to actively oppose nuclear proliferation.
Posted by: zwichenzug at Mar 30, 2006 1:08:07 PM
That, sometime within a decade, we will see the first CEO (or executive team) outsourced to a foreign country. That half of the Fortune 500 will follow.
Posted by: Twill00 at Mar 31, 2006 1:39:53 AM
I believe that some of my beliefs are false.
I believe that an anarcho-capitalist society would function well, just about as David Friedman describes it, and that the inefficiencies of anarcho-capitalism (which certainly exist) would be far outweighed by the inefficiencies and tendency toward tyranny of any kind of statism, including minarchy.
I believe that as long as we have a state, suffrage should be limited to those who can pass a test of basic economic literacy, and the government should probably actually pay people with high economic knowledge to vote.
Posted by: Adam at Apr 7, 2006 5:08:30 AM
I believe that time travel into the past is possible, but requires a "receiving station", which we haven't learnt to build yet. The assumption that it must be impossible (because we have never met any time travellers from the future) is like a man who doesn't own a phone saying that phone calls must be impossible because no-one has ever called him.
Posted by: Simon at Apr 20, 2006 10:15:55 AM
I believe that to the extent that it's possible to measure happiness, that average happiness among people, over time, is constant. That is to say, completely independent of measures like 'standard of living'.
This implies that all attempts to improve happiness among groups of people, for example by increasing prosperity through liberalization of government, are a zero-sum game.
Posted by: BillWallace at Jun 21, 2006 5:18:58 PM
P=NP. I'm not convinced, but I'm certainly not convinced of the opposite.
I worry about fiat money.
Not being a complete agnostic, I'll include my religious beliefs, without specifying what they are.
I believe that most people are basically good.
Posted by: Steven Jens at Jun 21, 2006 10:21:06 PM
That given the right incentives and proper instruction, Ann Coulter could learn compassion.
No, you're right...I don't believe that.
How about that the Lord speaks to me all the time and I keep telling him I'm an atheist?
Posted by: MTC at Jul 25, 2006 2:43:15 AM
Best way to solve our Iraq problem is to put Saddam Hussein back into power.
Posted by: shecky at Jul 25, 2006 5:00:23 AM
If a system appears to work flawlessly, we should be worried. If there are periodic disturbances, things are probably okay.
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