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What is the most absurd claim you believe?
Bryan Caplan says my most absurd view is philosophic pragmatism. I say Robin Hanson's most absurd view is to overestimate the chance we all become uploads in the next century. I am not sure Alex has a most absurd view, except perhaps his notion of what my most absurd view is (hint: "one in twenty").
What is your most absurd view? Comments are open. Yes your comment should be crazy but serious too. It should refer to a view which you actually hold, but many other smart people consider untenable and bizarre.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on March 21, 2006 at 07:15 AM in Education | Permalink
Comments
I am in favor of the end of the Offside Rule in Football (soccer).
Posted by: "Danielrone" Vasques at Mar 21, 2006 7:20:13 AM
That the axiom of choice is untrue.
Posted by: dsquared at Mar 21, 2006 7:28:24 AM
Oh, and that John Searle is substantially correct on all his important claims about the possibility of Turing Machines having intelligence.
Posted by: dsquared at Mar 21, 2006 7:29:17 AM
My top three absurd beliefs, in ascending order of absurdity:
Mathematical Platonism.
Good old-fashioned Bethamite hedonistic utilitarianism. (None of this preference-satisfaction nonsense for me. I embrace Nozick's experience machine!)
And every other day, I'm a Lewisean modal realist. This is in some degree of tension with my utilitarianism: and I worry about that.
Posted by: Brock at Mar 21, 2006 7:55:55 AM
That what we perceive to be the Universe and everything that's in it is really a simulation on a computer.
Obviously, it's inconsistent with dsquared's second crazy belief, but what experiment can we perform to disprove that hypothesis?
Posted by: Andy Wood at Mar 21, 2006 8:10:38 AM
That organized religion will atrophy in my lifetime.
Posted by: KipEsquire at Mar 21, 2006 8:32:51 AM
My only capitulation to superstition? I "knock on wood". Self-deception at its finest. I know it does nothing, but can't help myself during instances where "knocking on wood" should prevent an undesired (spoken) event from coming true. I will even go slightly out of my way to locate a piece of wood on which to knock. Thankfully, this is an infrequent practice.
Posted by: Shaun M. at Mar 21, 2006 8:35:06 AM
If there is a reason I "decide" to do something, then it's hard not to believe in predestination and (gulp) Spinoza's deus ex machina. That certainly affects (causes?) one's views on the meaning of life.
Posted by: EclectEcon at Mar 21, 2006 9:01:27 AM
I believe that, at times, our (current) mind receives information from our future mind ---yes, call it precognition. We interpret this input as (artictic or scientific) "creativity", knowing nothing about how to distinguish between deterministic creativity and precognition.
[If you're curious about the (crazy) physics behind this, click on the link under my name.]
There is a case to make about Robin Hanson circa 1988 receiving information from his own future mind (circa, say, November 2004) about political prediction markets and other societally important applications of related micro-market mechanisms.
As for his belief in (head) cryogenics and mind uploads (into computers), I read somewhere that he said there's only a 5% probability that it will work on him. Seems a *reasonable* over-estimation.
Posted by: Chris. F. Masse .COM at Mar 21, 2006 9:09:28 AM
That one is immodest, unbiased, or objective.
Posted by: efalken at Mar 21, 2006 9:17:34 AM
Kids have an incredible capacity for learning. If all children received talented instruction starting at a young age, then everyone's intellectual potential would be essentially unlimited.
Posted by: brian at Mar 21, 2006 9:26:55 AM
Abolish the death penalty and instead make killers and rapists do slave labor. That would really create an incentive not to kill...
Posted by: Eva Wolfberg at Mar 21, 2006 9:38:04 AM
I'm not superstitious, because it brings bad luck.
Posted by: PK at Mar 21, 2006 9:39:00 AM
That there is something about time, in the sense that we generally think of it, that we completely don't understand. I suspect that it may not even exist, but may be an illusion of consciousness.
Posted by: Derek Lowe at Mar 21, 2006 9:40:29 AM
I believe that left-wing politicians should be paid the minimum wage to show their solidarity with the poor.
Posted by: PK at Mar 21, 2006 9:43:26 AM
If a government is to return a tax wallet to its citizens, the history of the wallet trumps all ideas on the distribution of the wallet.
Posted by: disaggregated at Mar 21, 2006 9:44:41 AM
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We Scorpios don't believe in that Astrology stuff !
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Posted by: Kednall at Mar 21, 2006 9:49:40 AM
That at a deeply fundamental level, the universe makes no "sense". Or rather that the ability to accurately scale, measure, quantify, or even explain the universe has an eventual limit..
Broadly stated, we'll reach a point where all of our models "work" except they at least partially contradict most other models as well, meaning our ability to understand the universe hits an information breakdown.
Posted by: UberIcarus at Mar 21, 2006 9:51:09 AM
PK: Why just the left-wing ones? Put all the bastards on minimum wage.
Posted by: UberIcarus at Mar 21, 2006 9:52:52 AM
I believe that there is a decent chance that I will live for several hundred years.. Great topic, by the way.
Posted by: joshg at Mar 21, 2006 9:54:54 AM
Oh, and another thing: I also believe we're approaching a new form of economy (within 100-200 years give or take) which will neither resemble capitalism nor socialism.
Posted by: UberIcarus at Mar 21, 2006 9:56:26 AM
I believe that arming everyone would reduce the social damage due to crime. I think if the crime rate in an area is more than X, the government ought to issue everyone over 16 a shotgun.
Posted by: SamChevre at Mar 21, 2006 9:58:50 AM
P = NP
Posted by: James Grimmelmann at Mar 21, 2006 10:03:53 AM
I think that Gorbachev was a CIA operative.
Posted by: Pat L at Mar 21, 2006 10:18:26 AM
[That what we perceive to be the Universe and everything that's in it is really a simulation on a computer.]
You don't really believe this. (by which I mean, if it's true, then you don't really believe it, there's just a computer simulating you believing it).
Posted by: dsquared at Mar 21, 2006 10:19:14 AM
