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The future of science
If all this happens, or even half of it, I won't count as an economist any more. Thanks to kottke.org for the pointer.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on March 29, 2006 at 09:11 AM in Science | Permalink
Comments
"There will be more change in the next 50 years of science than in the last 400 years."
Hyperbole, surely. I doubt that even the next 100 years will match the 19th century for scientific advances. Still, it's an intriguing notion, the idea that chemistry in 2056 will make our chemistry look like alchemy, the idea that astrophysics in 2056 will make our astrophysics look like Ptolemy.
And how will our current smarty-pants, know-it-all scientists look? Like John Dee, probably.
Posted by: Intellectual Pariah at Mar 29, 2006 10:33:21 AM
Actually, I think economists are safe. Effectively, economists study interreaction of humans in power/information relationships in a given environment. While other disciplines (biology, chemistry, astronomy) may start producing knowledge without human intervention, this will give us a rapidly shifting environment for economists to figure out how we are working with each other, no? The Singularity Is Near by Ray Kurzweil is an interesting extended discussion of the same concept.
Posted by: Anonymous at Mar 29, 2006 10:58:06 AM
Oh, come on.
Keven Kelly are speaking about speculations. Not more and not less. And please, do not confound quality with quantity.
The essential questions will remain the same. There is nothing really new on earth. Different perspectives. Yes.
Posted by: Fernando Pessoa at Mar 29, 2006 11:32:13 AM
"There will be more change in the next 50 years of science than in the last 400 years."
This caught my eye too. With many scientists preaching the negative effects of global warming as our #1 concern, why such optimism? Wishful thinking maybe, but if it happens it will be great to witness.
Posted by: ninethreeone at Mar 29, 2006 11:36:10 AM
"There will be more change in the next 50 years of science than in the last 400 years."
Funny, I thought that was the obvious part of what he said. And the rest was speculation. As to many scientists preaching on Global Warming...maybe many are, but not many of those preachers are scientists whose field is how to prioritze concerns. Those folks are called economists.
Posted by: kyle at Mar 29, 2006 1:24:51 PM
Forget "There will be more change in the next 50 years of science than in the last 400 years." What is "run multiple competing hypotheses in a matrix" supposed to mean? Or did I miss the memo when Star Trek style technobabble became a sign of intelligence?
Posted by: Ssezi at Mar 29, 2006 4:06:30 PM
"And how will our current smarty-pants, know-it-all scientists look? Like John Dee, probably."
That's an awfully bold statement to make based on speculations by a non-scientist (actually, completely
non-degreed) with a background primarily in photojournalism and "cyberculture".
Posted by: MJ Memphis at Mar 29, 2006 4:19:01 PM
>> Like John Dee, probably.
> That's an awfully bold statement...
I did qualify it as "an intriguing notion" in the previous paragraph... which in my idiolect tends to mean "colourful but untenable".
Of course, science may also stagnate over the next half-century. Undoubtedly procedures will be massively computerised and data stores will grow exponentially, but whether that will lead revolutionary breakthrough like those all sciences achieved in the 19th century and some did in the 20th century is open to question. Those 19th century guys made fundamental discoveries using *human* calculators - people who did long division all day for a living. But the discoveries were there to be made. Maybe these massive computer-driven research projects will be the equivalent of cataloguing every grain of sand on the beach.
Posted by: Intellectual Pariah at Mar 29, 2006 6:17:37 PM
And let's not forget the possibility that the Boomers will live to be 100 and, having abolished mandatory retirement as soon as doing so acrued to their advantage, will hold on to senior scientific positions into their dotages, thereby immobilizing the nation's scientific culture for the next few decades.
Posted by: Intellectual Pariah at Mar 29, 2006 6:22:29 PM
"What is "run multiple competing hypotheses in a matrix" supposed to mean? "
"do not confound quality with quantity."
don't misunderestimate(sic) the effect of Moore's Law(also sic) on data analysis. It took a great deal of pure math mated with computing power to eventuate in MRI-type medical imaging technology. The knock-on effects from that are manifold. The same sorts of analysis (heuristic, stochastic, Fourier transform, etc.) applied to all sorts of data sets can answer questions. Some of those questions are very long standing. Some of them are just being formed based on recent discovery. The recent discovery of the significance of the number 42 to the distribution of zeros in Riemann's zeta function was due to the availability of processing horsepower. From that revelation we get a relationship between prime numbers and heavy atom nuclei that we never had before. Is there an application? Just establishing a relationship between number theory and physical reality is a huge leap towards application. I'm fairly ignorant in the ways of math and science, but from the reading I've done I can see how the ability to grock a quantity of data sets will eventuate in quality discoveries. I don't believe the significance of Kelly's speculation lies in the specifics of his mumbo-jumbo. More significant is his identification of the problem science is facing - too much information. The current structure demands too much of individual scientists. Rigorous reading of the literature on almost any subject is getting to be a life long endeavor. Can science survive as an objective pursuit in the sea of data scientists are faced with today/tomorrow? Or will it become more like architecture? (ouch)
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