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The bottom line on the new Judith Harris book
If you think my theory is unnecessarily complex, just wait till you see what the theories will be like fifty years from now.
An excellent line but also a sign of trouble. The final sentence is:
Making a virtue of necessity, I will leave it to other people to test my theory [TC: in fairness to Harris, she may be referring to her medical problems].
Nonetheless I like virtually everything she says. The key point is that when it comes to environmental influences on our behavior, we are highly malleable avatars. Tests which don't recognize this will be misleading. For instance if you are testing "birth rank" theories, submission within the family does not imply submissive behavior toward the outside world. Of course the theory immediately gains an additional degree of freedom, both its blessing and curse.
The book is full of fascinating facts and interludes:
...people who are married to one of a pair of twins feel, on average, only so-so about the other twin; only 13 percent of the men and 7 percent of the women feel they could have fallen for their spouse's twin.
Dead Ringers anyone? Here is my previous post on the book.
The bottom line: All those young, anti-theocratic, and sometimes pro-democratic Iranian hotheads, for all their rebellious behavior against their parents, when push comes to shove will embrace nuclear weapons and a maximal sphere of regional influence.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on March 13, 2006 at 07:28 AM in Books | Permalink
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Comments
OK, you lost me. Just what does pop psychology have to do with Iran?
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at Mar 13, 2006 9:53:56 AM
Easy, Robert. I think Tyler's referring back to "For instance if you are testing "birth rank" theories, submission within the family does not imply submissive behavior toward the outside world."
The implication is that young, anti-theocratic, pro-democratic hotheads in Iran may behave in apparently rebellious ways within the social context of Iran, but might present a very similar face to the outside world when dealing with power-political questions like whether to develop nukes. I'd say that the apparent popularity of nukes across much of both the political and social axes in Iran bears this out. In fact, I think it's why the mullahs have painted themselves into a corner on the issue. They couldn't back down now even if they wanted to, it would just present another excuse for internal rebelliousness.
Posted by: Bernard Guerrero at Mar 13, 2006 1:34:33 PM
Oh. That goes without saying. But if there's internal strife in Iran, we could use the period of struggle as leverage to close down their nuclear program.
Posted by: Mycroft at Mar 13, 2006 1:54:29 PM
Excellent! My mom's an identical twin, and I've seriously spent my entire life wondering that about my dad.
Posted by: Andromeda Yelton at Mar 13, 2006 2:35:47 PM
>...people who are married to one of a pair of twins feel, on average, only so-so about the other twin; only 13 percent of the men and 7 percent of the women feel they could have fallen for their spouse's twin.
That section of the book is particularly good. A naive version of sociobiology would have you believe that people are always looking for the best possible genetic mate they can find. Results like this show that mating is a type of satisficing with the emotional effects of love ensuring that people are happy with their choice.
Posted by: joe o at Mar 13, 2006 5:31:32 PM
"but might present a very similar face to the outside world when dealing with power-political questions like whether to develop nukes."
Yes, but they might not be quite as insane as the current rulers.
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