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Speculative claims about Australia
Why do some countries keep all their people in a small number of large cities?
A good example of the relationship between climate variability and human population size is provided by Australia. It is unique among the larger nations in consisting of either very small settlements or large cities, for the middle-sized towns that predominate elsewhere in the world are almost entirely absent. This is a consequence of the cycle of drought and flood that has characterized the land from first settlement.
Small regional population centers have survived because they can batten down the hatches and endure drought, and large cities have also survived because they are integrated into the global economy. The resource networks of towns, however, are smaller than the region affected by climate variability, making them vulnerable to swings in income. Typically, what happens is that, as a drought progresses, the farm machinery dealership and and automotive dealership close down...When the drought finally breaks, these businesses do not return...instead people travel to larger centers to buy what they need, and in time end up moving there.
The Australian example shows that climate variability has in fact encouraged the formation of cities: Today it is the most urbanized nation on Earth.
That is from Tim Flannery's The Weather Makers: How Man is Changing the Climate and What It Means for the Earth. A few passages make me wince, such as the romanticization of 18th century Scottish highlanders, but mostly it is the best popular science book on its topic.
My IRT ("introspective regression techniques") support Flannery's implicit prediction. Think about all that empty desert in Saudi Arabia, although I wonder why the rather wet Uppsala is so dull. Opinions? Do we see concentrated population in major cities where it is driest and where the weather is most variable? I don't recall that Ades and Glaeser mention this factor, but surely it deserves more study.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on March 8, 2006 at 06:58 AM in Economics | Permalink
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Comments
Part of the Great Plains in the United States have seen a similar growth pattern in recent decades, with the cities growing even as rural areas and small towns slowly depopulate. It's quite a strectch, however, to attribute this pattern to climate variability. Changes in farm economics are a more signficiant factor.
Posted by: Peter at Mar 8, 2006 9:46:07 AM
I'd question the climate as the driving force in resettlement, as
described. My grandfathers family, 2 parents and 7 kids, moved to
to a quarter section farm in west Oklahoma in 1925. Assuming the
surounding area had similar families, that's bout 36 people per section.
Currently families are more like 2 parents with 2 children per section.
Plus in 1925 they had a model TT 1 ton truck (25 mph) and horse drawn
equipment. (grandpa said it was amazing, equipment you rode on
instead of walked behind). Travel anywhere was
a days trip, so you needed a small town every 20 miles. Now you drive
70 mph, so you only need a town every 70 miles.
Good roads are a more likely explanation.
Posted by: rmark at Mar 8, 2006 10:19:35 AM
Earlier movement into the Great Plains may also have resulted in
overpopulation, for the farm techniques of the time,
with migration out being a natural result. Rain does not follow the plow.
Posted by: rmark at Mar 8, 2006 10:25:25 AM
Arizona has the same settlement pattern, but here it's probably because of the engineering works needed to deliver water.
Posted by: Todd Fletcher at Mar 8, 2006 10:50:08 AM
Jane Jacobs,, in her "Cities and the Wealth of Nations" (which may be her weakest work), explains that in an era of floating currencies, each currency area (country) has a tendency to concentrate into one big city. The reason for this is that currency fluctuations are driven by changing economic fortunes of the manufacturers and other large economic actors in the major cities, and so the cities receive most of the benefit of exchange-rate adjustments, while smaller cities and towns not on the same business cycle get clobbered by exchange rates moving in directions which don't benefit them. Eventually most large economic actors end up in the big city, and the population follows. Large regional centers become economic "colonies" of the large city, but may remain to service large populations or resource concentrations.
In large countries, this tendency takes a long time, but there is still a tendency towards concentration. In smaller countries, or countries which have other centripital social forces, this can become quite pronounced. In Europe, the economies of London, Paris, and Milan dwarf those of the regional cities, while in Ireland and Greece, the populations of the capital cities' regions is one-third to one-half the total population of the nation.
Posted by: Anthony at Mar 8, 2006 12:09:19 PM
I grew up in Australia, and I blame the car much more than the weather. Once it becomes feasible to cross large distances in little time, unless smaller towns are well developed (e.g. most of Europe) the horror of suburbia seems inevitable.
OK, that's not exactly an unbiased view but I hope you can see the point through the poltics.
Posted by: Noel Welsh at Mar 8, 2006 12:27:38 PM
Horror of suburbia? Please explain this horror. Is it the room to have a house with a yard? (The affordability of that lot?) Is it the accessible shopping to buy the things you need/want?
Posted by: Jim Bim at Mar 8, 2006 1:57:54 PM
I want to add to the chorus: it's the car, not weather.
The northern plains of Texas provide the ideal counter example. Thanks to Texans' love of dams, the water supply became ever more reliable throughout the 20th century, yet Dallas grew and grew and grew at the expense of numerous small towns. Why? well, it's obvious to any who grew up in one of these towns.
The 19th century settlement pattern was to place a County Seat (tertiary government center) every thirty miles, becuase that was a day's ride on a horse. Smaller cities, typically a few hundred to a few thousand, would then appear every 5 to ten miles to provide supplies for a largely agrarian population.
As transit slowly improved, the logistical need for the smallest cities vanished and these settlements stalled first. As Highways began stretching outward from Dallas, Wichita Falls, and Oklahoma City in ever denser webs, even the county seats began to shrink, or at least stall.
The result of this is well depicted in Peter Bogdanovich's "Last Picture Show."
Blame better logistics and improved transport, not the weather.
Posted by: tylerh at Mar 8, 2006 2:48:34 PM
A significant feature of Australia is that it was settled so recently. Significant areas were first farmed after World War 2.
The path dependence of the settlement pattern is surely significant: Rural areas that first gain significant population during the 1940s and 50s will naturally choose distances appropriate to long distance car and trucks, rather than horses.
Furthermore, Australian rural wage rates have always been near the highest in the world. Far more so than the mexican dominated rural workforce in the USA for example. Hence Australian farming is highly mechanized, with significantly fewer people per hectare.
Posted by: Patrick at Mar 8, 2006 5:06:48 PM
This is nothing new, Most of the European Nations were the same way for centuries; lots of rural areas, very few mid-sized towns, and a few really big cities.
Posted by: Kyle N at Mar 8, 2006 6:31:51 PM
You are ignoring the fundamental facts about Australia.
Firstly it was settled relatively recently. Using six good harbours to to settle six colonies.
The original settlements have now gone on to become the six major cities.
Which are still the administrative centres and are slap bang in the middle of the fertile land in each state.
Most land has never been intensively farmed hence has had little need for a major localcentre. There are few middle sized cities in Australia because there never were. The existing largish middle sized cities are all pretty much the result of current or past mineral booms.
Aussie guy from the country
Posted by: shawfactor at Mar 8, 2006 7:37:32 PM
I'm from Australia as well, and I agree with shawfactor. Australia never had mid size towns in the first place, so any droughts did not result in depopulation. Most people who come to Australia settle near the major cities because thats where everyone else is.
Posted by: Alaistair at Mar 8, 2006 9:19:03 PM
There is not much remarkable about Flannery's comment on Australia’s high level of urbanisation today - it was one of the most urbanised countries a century ago.
While undoubtedly population share has shifted to the cities, Australia was always relatively highly urbanised. In 1911 60% of the population lived in urban areas, today it is 90% urbanised (see ABS Yearbooks).
I do not have long term trends to hand but according to the UNDP, 37% of the world was urban dwelling in 1975 - Australia 86% urbanised, OECD 67% urbanised. In 2003 48% of the world was urbanised - Australia 92%, OECD 76%.
Flannery is also prone to hyperbole – Australia is not the world’s most urbanised nation. Countries as diverse as Iceland, Belgium, Singapore and Uruguay are all more urbanised than Australia, with others like Argentina, Israel and Luxembourg pretty close.
High growth in agricultural and mining productivity mean less demand for labour in rural areas. Aging population (retirement to coastal urban centres), structural change (growth in the services sector as an employer) and improved infrastructure (better roads and vehicles mean rural dwellers can access amenities at larger towns) have also contributed Australia’s trends.
Flannery's general comment also flies in the face of the fact that mid size Australian towns have shown strong growth rates, especially in coastal areas but also in major inland “sponge cities”.
Posted by: Stephen at Mar 9, 2006 5:34:25 AM
I've posted this before, and I'll keep hammering it: US urbanization is driven by increased efficiency in the agricultural sector. 100-150 years ago, a quarter section (160 acres) would keep a family fed (and busy). I grew up (1970-80) on 2000 arable acres + 640 acres of pasture--grandpa, dad, me, and two hired hands in the summer. This fall, an uncle described that they were buying a swather that will replace the three that they currently use.
Almost all of this freed labor will go to an urban center rather than a small town, since the small towns are economic centers for the local farm families. Indeed, the amount of labor shifting to the urban center may well exceed 100% of the amount leaving the farm, as the reduction in the number of local farmers can cause local businesses to fail.
This effect is first-order independent of transportation improvements such as roads & vehicular speed. Second-order, these improvements are at least closely tied to the improvements in farming efficiency.
I'm glad no one brought up the "urbanization" caused by the Dust Bowl. Those lands were brought back into production as soon as it was possible. That was a less-than-a-decade blip on a long curve.
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