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Interesting links
1. David Friedman has a novel coming out.
2. Here is another good reason to have sex.
3. Contracts for everything, a' la Mary Blige.
4. Long compound German nouns.
5. Bird flu, standing on one foot, by EffectMeasure. Here is a good analysis of avian flu in cats.
6. How baseball statistics confuse the transient and the permanent, pointer from Robert Schwartz.
7. George Lucas: "I predict that by 2025 the average movie will cost only $15 million."
8. How to moderate a panel, pointer from Chris Masse.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on March 9, 2006 at 07:35 AM in Education | Permalink
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Comments
I had a "Dear Prudie" reaction to your Bird Flu link. i.e. it could use some economic perspective. Efforts to stop a pandemic are not be a waste of time if we have positive real interest rates and those efforts can succeed in delaying the pandemic or slowing its spread.
Revere's second and third points are better.
Posted by: DK at Mar 9, 2006 8:44:49 AM
As much as I like Bill James, the article by him just shows the reason that statistical analysis is best done by those with training in mathematical statistics. The problems he described can be trivially solved by writing down simple statistical models and then calculating confidence intervals. In fact this seems to be a better way to express his main point...rather than focusing on whether we reject the null, we should focus on the size of the confidence bounds for the effects of interest, a point I completely agree with. Lacking statistical training and vocabulary, James makes his argument seem more profound and difficult than it really is.
Posted by: ed johhnson at Mar 9, 2006 9:57:36 AM
I'm not sure about George Lucas's statement. Does he mean the average movie overall (then I'd probably buy it) or the average movie shown in a large public theater? Increasing home theater and television technology could easily create more and more of a bias for dialogue heavy (and hence cheaper) movies to be watched at home. This would reserve theatrical releases for the blockbusters with impressive special effects and high budgets.
Posted by: John Thacker at Mar 9, 2006 10:10:57 AM
I agree with Ed Johhnson. Much of what James writes seems to reflect his discovery that the standard errors of many sabermetric estimates are very large.
Posted by: Bernard Yomtov at Mar 9, 2006 10:21:38 AM
Messrs Johnson and Yomtov. Of course a professional mathematician would find what Bill James has said to be trivial, and as they used to say in class before baffling me completely: "intuitively obvious to the most casual observer," or "the details of the proof are left as an exercise for the student." However, for the rest of us, the article was an interesting exploration of the limits of the kind of knowledge we can gain through statistics.
Long compound German nouns. The Master already discussed that and many other problems with the German language
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at Mar 9, 2006 11:22:36 AM
Tyler, you sure that German website wasn't a hoax?
I only have basic German skills, but it smells funny to me. Did you check any with a German-English dictionary?
Maybe it's obviously a joke and I'm not catching on.
Posted by: Chris at Mar 9, 2006 11:57:13 AM
As much as I like Bill James, the article by him just shows the reason that statistical analysis is best done by those with training in mathematical statistics.
Well...the problem is that most of the people doing statistical analysis in baseball aren't trained. And most of the people reading statistical analysis in baseball aren't trained.
So his conclusion is somewhat profound to his audience.
Posted by: bob montgomery at Mar 9, 2006 12:22:41 PM
Of course, English has super-long compound words too. We just have an orthographic convention of writing them with a space between the parts. Here's a fairly straightforward, not at all confusing, compound entirely built of nouns - no higher syntax going on:
Stanford University Linguistics department undergraduate faculty advisor nomination process
Count how many prepositions and/or relative clause imbeddings it takes to translate this one English word elegantly into a Romance language of your choice.
Posted by: J. Goard at Mar 9, 2006 3:27:19 PM
You can compound nouns in the same way in Swedish. Here's an example:
"Hundfångarbilsfabrikschefhatare". Meaning "a person who hates bosses of
factories making cars for dog-catchers". Don't you wonder how you managed to live your life without this knowledge before?
You will never words as these in reality of course.
Posted by: Johan Richter at Mar 9, 2006 5:59:59 PM
I completely misunderstood you when you said "David Friedman has a novel coming out." I thought you meant that David Friedman made public private information about his sexuality, and did so in an innovative fashion. I went to his webpage and it took me a few seconds to figure out that ... in fact ... he had simply published a work of fiction. Not quite as interesting.
Posted by: Ennis at Mar 9, 2006 11:32:12 PM
I think George Lucas' estimate is a little high. I'd beleive $10 Million for two movie tickets, popcorn, soft drinks, and parking, but $15 Million seems high.
Posted by: John Galt at Mar 10, 2006 12:29:06 AM
A further post on ignorance about the German language. Most words are not and do not even sound German. I know spelling has never been a US (Canadian this time) forte, but getting two errors in the first word ...
It is probably the most common example for long words. Donau-Dampfschiffahrts-Gesellschaft, the Danube steam shipping company. For comprehension and formatting purposes, the use of such long words is usually discouraged.
You should better link to Mark Twain's comments about the German language. Funnier, closer to the truth and better written.
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housewife 1on1 -
housewife bangers -
huge boobs galore -
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just facials -
latin adultery -
little april -
little summer -
met art -
milf seeker -
milton twins -
more gonzo -
my first sex teacher -
my friends hot mom -
my naughty latin maid -
my sex tour -
my sisters hot friend -
naughty allie -
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naughty bookworms -
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housewife bangers -
huge boobs galore -
insane cock brothas -
just facials -
latin adultery -
little april -
little summer -
met art -
milf seeker -
milton twins -
more gonzo -
my first sex teacher -
my friends hot mom -
my naughty latin maid -
my sex tour -
my sisters hot friend -
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