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Which students are most likely to complete an economics Ph.d.?
The best predictors would appear to be a high math GRE score, being foreign, and having recommendation letters from "quality professors." Here is the paper and data. Those indicators also predict research productivity. Thanks to Craig Newmark for the pointer; here is his source.
Do beware the general problem with this kind of study. It is easy to set up a model where GRE scores do not predict later academic success, precisely because GRE scores are used as a dominant criterion for admission. An admitted student with low scores presumably has some other virtue in his favor. Yet it would be wrong to conclude that scores, in the population pool, are not correlated with quality. The real trick would be to look at a broader pool of applicants, not just those who were accepted and attended.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on February 20, 2006 at 08:32 AM in Education | Permalink
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Comments
How upset should you be if you don't meet all of those criteria, given that the R-squareds indicate that less than 10% of the variation in outcomes is explained by their 12 explanatory variables?
Posted by: asfasdf at Feb 20, 2006 9:37:26 AM
Alright, after a few years of reading I finally got a mention on my favorite blog! Very exciting. Even if the mention was "his source" its still a good time.
You think I can put this down as being a research assistant to Prof Newmark on my applications to grad programs next year?
Just kidding.
Posted by: Adam at Feb 20, 2006 9:48:55 AM
Ah, Tyler, but this paper does exactly what you suggest: The sample is all applicants, not just those who attend. The paper isn't quite explicit about that, but look at the sample size: 344 from the cohort applying to enter in 1989. Princeton admits closer to one-tenth that many. For reasons that I haven't been able to decipher with a quick glance, the analysis sample seems to be only 281, but again that is far too many to be just admitted students.
So the purely statistical problem that you worry about doesn't seem to be present. There's still a related, substantive issue: GREs may predict future productivity simply because they help students get into better programs, and better programs influence productivity. So the result doesn't have to mean that high math GREs are indicators of a student's ability; it could simply mean that admissions committees see them as such. Of course, this interpretation flies against evidence (at the undergraduate level) that selective schools don't do much for their students...
Posted by: Jesse at Feb 20, 2006 9:59:56 AM
Two things: First, a literal interpretation of the estimates for probability of completing grad school shows that a 50 point increase in GRE Math score is associated with a 0.05 increase in the probability of completion (from Table 2, Table 3). So those of us (like myself) who didn't scorch the GRE math shouldn't worry too much about not finishing.
Second: Number of pubs and number of quality pubs are weakly positive integer variables, they should be doing Poisson regressions not OLS.
Posted by: Brian at Feb 20, 2006 10:39:30 AM
How do you measure sheer determination or drive? That is what dominates..
Posted by: edwardseco at Feb 20, 2006 11:02:25 AM
This makes sense and matches our own internal studies.
Another way to put the results: Few observables predict academic success. But to the extent anything does, it's GREs in Math and elite schooling (esp if in contact with famous professors). The foreign results are almost surely due to the high hurdles for foreign students and the consequent selection bias. They also didn't mention that foreign students -- because of their visa situation -- may often have fewer opportunities for private non-academic jobs after grad. Hence, they will stick it out as an assistant prof while Americans might jump ship to a better paying consultancy or govt agency if their productivity is borderline either before or after Phd completion.
But the magnitudes of the effects are small enough that unobserved factors -- perhaps drive -- are likely to matter more.
Posted by: jn at Feb 20, 2006 11:25:51 AM
Oh, I would give an arm and a leg (more like a few toes, really) to get to pursue a PhD in the US.
Unfortunatelly I'll have to settle for whatever institution will have me, here. :-( (Off-topic, I know.)
Posted by: Gabriel Mihalache at Feb 20, 2006 11:41:28 AM
So in 1989, the mean total number of schools applied to was 4.4 with a SD of 2... those were the days!
Posted by: tc at Feb 20, 2006 2:26:12 PM
Note to anyone facing the GRE: The general exam (math & language) is very, very much like the SAT. I suspect its actually somewhat easier. (I expect that general skills atrophy during college.)
I did really poorly on the first math portion--I failed to pace myself. It wasn't a serious issue--my degree is in mathematics. ;)
Finally, I would point out that not finishing is not necessarily a bad outcome. I was accepted into the PhD program, then withdrew (taking a terminal MA) four months later when I realized that I really didn't want to do that...
Posted by: Nathan Zook at Feb 20, 2006 2:51:29 PM
"GRE scores are used as a dominant criterion for admission"
As a grad school applicant (with decent GRE scores), that statement is somewhat comforting.
Posted by: Bergamot at Feb 20, 2006 4:35:40 PM
I think it's odd, a mistake, to post on a topic -- David Irving and free speech -- which demands conversation and yet to close comments.
Posted by: Man at Feb 21, 2006 12:47:22 AM
I agree with Jesse above that while the inclusion of aplicants in the study may eliminate the range restriction problem, it introduces the very real possibility that high math GRE scores were corrolated to career sucess in the study simply because those with a high GRE score where actually admitted to top tier institutions where as those in the study with lower scores were not admitted and had apreciably fewer options for jobs in acedemia after completion of their PhD. (If they even pursued one elsewhere)
Posted by: Kawika Pierson at Feb 21, 2006 3:41:45 AM
KP is correct but the relation is weak anyway. The more important thing is that the GRE Math scores are useful as an indicator of a minimum level of competency. At second and third tier programs, a marginal admit with low math scores will struggle to even pass the first year. I have known of one or two cases of really low scorers who struggled and made it through but given how technical the material of the standard first year core is even for students who are all in the >720 range of the GRE it is not surprising that low scorers would get knocked out or underperform.
The rare exceptions are the clever kids who, knowing that they're relatively weak in math, still tough it out and then configure their papers to focus on interesting applied issues requiring less sophisticated econometrics.
But it takes an awful lot of sweat and self-confidence to pull through the hard first year, pass prelims, and then remain positive even if one ends up at the bottom of the class on the first year exams.
Posted by: nn at Feb 21, 2006 11:55:38 AM
The ones who can't get a job?
Posted by: Dum Bass at Feb 22, 2006 4:06:07 AM
I have a somewhat different datum to offer, as I am a refugee from a CS PhD program. In Computer Science, the higher-GRE students were more likely to leave, due to the number of companies actively seeking to lure smart PhD students away. Foreign students were much more likely to complete degrees due to visa rules, i.e. the risk of deportation if you don't find a job; the extra costs companies pay to hire someone on a visa; and the less-tempting, lower salaries companies offer H1B's.
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