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The best sentence I read last night
Expressed loosely, being smart makes women patient and makes men take more risks.
That is Shane Frederick, in the Fall 2005 issue of Journal of Economic Perspectives. Here is an on-line version of the paper. Here is Frederick's home page. Here is his fascinating doctoral thesis, an exploration of discounting and personal identity over time.
Frederick dares the economist to judge some people as irrational rather than ascribing all differences to preferences or risk-aversion. Remember all those tests of expected utility theory? If subjects with high cognitive abilities tend to choose a certain way, should we not consider that the rational choice? For instance your ability to get simple numerical problems right is correlated with having a low rate of time preference. Also check out Frederick's data on which schools have students with the highest cognitive abilities...poor Toledo University...
Posted by Tyler Cowen on January 18, 2006 at 06:44 AM in Economics | Permalink
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» A Scientific Aptitude Test? from In the Pipeline
I've just spent some time reading a very enjoyable and interesting paper (PDF, and thanks to Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution) from Shane Frederick at MIT's Sloan management school. He has a simple test that seems rather well correlated with... [Read More]
Tracked on Jan 18, 2006 11:34:47 PM
» A Scientific Aptitude Test? from In the Pipeline
I've just spent some time reading a very enjoyable and interesting paper (PDF, and thanks to Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution) from Shane Frederick at MIT's Sloan management school. He has a simple test that seems rather well correlated with... [Read More]
Tracked on Jan 19, 2006 7:06:48 AM
» A Scientific Aptitude Test? from In the Pipeline
I've just spent some time reading a very enjoyable and interesting paper (PDF, and thanks to Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution) from Shane Frederick at MIT's Sloan management school. He has a simple test that seems rather well correlated with... [Read More]
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Comments
I wonder if this effect is largely due to the fact that most of the people he sampled are college students, from some clearly expensive universities, and some from public ones (see the by-location table).
By definition, if you are attending MIT or Princeton, you are patient, and you are willing to invest a lot of money today for the uncertain possibility of future gains tomorrow. If you are equally smart and capable of attending MIT or Princeton, but you have instead chosen to attend U Michigan, that is pretty strong evidence that you have a different time preference and/or risk profile than the typical MIT/Princeton student.
Thus, I would be more impressed with this paper if they could show that the smartness vs. risk/time results apply at single universities, not just in cross-university studies. (I think their result would still hold, but, I'd like to see data).
Note: I am not claiming that U Michigan is not as good or as future-income producing as MIT or Princeton, just that it is cheaper, which reduces both the direct cost and the risk of dropping out, taking time off, etc.
Note 2: You are still "investing" money even if it comes from loans or your parents (reducing your inheritance).
Posted by: DK at Jan 18, 2006 11:12:29 AM
If subjects with high cognitive abilities tend to choose a certain way, should we not consider that the rational choice?
"The" rational choice for people with high cognitive abilities, or for people in general?
Posted by: Eric H at Jan 18, 2006 11:29:35 AM
That is a great paper. Being a forty-something though, I'm interested (and a little frightened) by what they'd learn in a study of my cohort. We gain experience, but become somewhat fixed in our decision making patterns.
Posted by: odograph at Jan 18, 2006 11:39:59 AM
VERY good point DK.
Posted by: michael vassar at Jan 18, 2006 12:20:20 PM
The table of cognitive ability by university was entertaining, but remember that the results are reflective of gender differences -- men do a lot better on the CRT, which probably explains some of MIT's big advantage (not that I don't think they're all brilliant).
Posted by: Dave at Jan 18, 2006 1:22:54 PM
My thought was that science/engineering schools like MIT (or Cal Tech) select for people with a very cognitive worldview. LOL, run it again looking at ratios of CRT to dating prowess and see if it's all gravy.
Posted by: odograph at Jan 18, 2006 1:26:05 PM
Eric - rational choice is tautological at that point, though.
Posted by: scott cunningham at Jan 18, 2006 1:55:49 PM
Do people who do better on CRT perform better in baysean reasoning esperimients when given little information? Rational choices are just going to be a subset of ideas based on induction at some point, no? Perhaps if some people are better at induction their preferences are in some way "more rational." In another sense, though, anybody whose indifference curves don't cross is rational.
Posted by: joshg at Jan 18, 2006 4:31:24 PM
"Expressed loosely, being smart makes women patient and makes men take more
risks."
Perhaps we could look at this from a biological standpoint.
It makes sense for men to take more risks as a reproductive strategy.
Smart men realise this (at least instinctively) and take (calculated) risks.
Posted by: Peter Shaw at Jan 18, 2006 5:53:55 PM
"Expressed loosely, being smart makes women patient and makes men take more
risks."
Perhaps we could look at this from a biological standpoint.
It makes sense for men to take more risks as a reproductive strategy.
Smart men realise this (at least instinctively) and take (calculated) risks.
Posted by: shawfactor at Jan 18, 2006 5:54:24 PM
We had a discussion here at UF Law about the rationality of the looters in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. A former Prosecutor and Democrat said that looters of any stripe or circumstances were obviously irrational and flaunting their disregard for authority.
I raised my hand and asked him what the law was exactly doing for them? Why *would* they regard it? What in either long-term or short-term horizons bade them to not get an air conditioner that, even though they can't use it now, they could use later to recoup some costs of the disaster?
He had no answer, so I continued.
It seems as though when people commit crimes, their decisions are rational GIVEN short-term horizons, GIVEN extreme emotional imbalance (rationality indeed!), and so on. Surely there is room for compromise on both models-- and I think this paper hits it right on the head.
But beware thinking you can wash economics away like only so much dirt, of course. Economics is the broader, more effective discipline for looking at these things.
Posted by: Admiral at Jan 19, 2006 3:41:46 PM
I would tend to agree with Odograph that it is very natural to believe that folks at a Technical university’would naturally tend to have a very quant/cognitive worldview (which would help to explain why Carnegie Mellon ranked ahead of Harvard, despite Harvard being a more prestigious academic institution).
As an alum of MIT, I would, however, like to respond to a few of the posts.
Dave – While it is true that the face amount for an MIT education is certainly above that of a state school, one has to take into account financial aid on actual costs. A good friend of mine (whose parents weren’t well off…his dad was an Econ professor…), ended up paying something like $7,000 annually. Expensive but far less than the $30,000 face.
Also, while MIT has historically been gender biased towards men, in recent years the male/female ratio has been reasonably close to 50/50 (my incoming class was 60/40 and the classes that followed me were trending towards 50/50)
Odograph – I believe you are accurate in your depiction of MIT students dating prowess.
Posted by: lannychiu at Jan 19, 2006 3:58:33 PM
The MIT classes trending towards 50/50 represents a gender bias AGAINST men, not the elimantion of the opposite.
Posted by: BillWallace at Jan 19, 2006 4:36:28 PM
Sorry BillWallace I guess I don't really understand your comment. One of the previous posters seemed to be intimating that the gender bias at MIT could account for some of MIT's good performance on the CRT test (since men tended to do better than woman on the test).
My only point was that the pro-male bias at MIT was smaller than many would assume, and in any case was going away.
Posted by: lannychiu at Jan 19, 2006 5:15:51 PM
The point I was trying to make, and the problem of extrapolating from this, is encapsulated in "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments" by Justin Kruger and David Dunning, found here:
http://www.apa.org/journals/features/psp7761121.pdf
(Sorry I couldn't find the link, fortunately my DW now has it del.icio.us-ed!).
I have no problem with the advice, "Tyler Cowen should take more risks," but I do with the advice that results from saying risk-taking is the rational choice for everyone because smart people do it. It may result in some misapplication by people in general, or by people who *believe* themselves to be intelligent. Smart people actually know that they don't know everything and can account for that better than someone who doesn't know that they don't know everything. That has to be important, otherwise it wouldn't be called "risk".
On a side note, I remember reading that (1) smoking is negatively correlated with education (a proxy for intelligence?), and (2) that smokers generally *over*-estimate their risk for lung cancer (they believe the odds are higher than they actually are), but (3) choose to smoke anyhow (I think this was a citation of a Viscusi study in either Bennett & DiLorenzo's _Cancerscam_ or Jacob Sullum's _For Your Own Good_). Can this square with Shane's results?
Posted by: Eric H at Jan 20, 2006 11:58:37 AM
All right, I'll admit it. Where can I find the d@#m answers to the CRT?
Posted by: GAB at Jan 23, 2006 3:17:04 PM
This study shows that men do better on famous brainteasers than women. SF interprets this as men are smarter than women, but an alternative explanation is that men are more familiar with old, famous brainteasers. The study was published in Journal of Economic Perspectives, presumably because no psychology journal would publish a study witih such an obvious confound.
http://debfrisch.com/archives/2006/01/boyz_r_smarter_1.html
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