Marginal Revolution: Wagering on Time's Person of the Year

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Wagering on Time's Person of the Year

Here is the story, they had to shut the betting market and yes the link tells you who (ostensibly) will win. Sports Illustrated's Sportsperson of the Year has been revealed as well; I am embarrassed to admit I have never heard of him. It wasn't Gilbert Arenas. Thanks to the ever-vigilant Chris Masse for the pointer.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on December 5, 2005 at 01:35 PM in Current Affairs | Permalink

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Comments

You've never heard of Tom Brady? Really?

Posted by: Kyle S at Dec 5, 2005 1:44:14 PM

What happended is what is supposed to happen: the financial incentive causes inside information to leak out, so the betting market has more information than any other market. The fact that we see this as being morally problematic....

Posted by: Isaac at Dec 5, 2005 2:18:45 PM

I'm not sure that morally problematic is the issue here -- it is business-model problematic, as no gambling site can stay in business if it continues to take bets after the result is widely known. Both the gambling and financial industries rely on the fact that the majority of people think they are smarter or better informed than the median player. As soon as that illusion is broken, betting loses its appeal.

Posted by: DK at Dec 5, 2005 3:01:06 PM

Never heard of Tom Brady, but you know enough about Gilbert Arenas to know that he's having a good year? THIS is why expert opinions are rarely worth much.

Posted by: MK at Dec 5, 2005 6:34:51 PM

Tom Brady is the poster child for the "most popular" sport in the country, and you've never even heard of him? I guess I know the answer to who serves on celebrity juries, Ivy PHDs.

Posted by: Eric at Dec 5, 2005 6:47:50 PM

Never heard of Tom Brady? That's what I'd say too if I had a Jersey
connection with the inside dope on SI's sportsman of the year. And the
Ivy league PhD is the perfect cover...

Posted by: Pat L at Dec 5, 2005 7:04:55 PM

Presumably there was pressure to shutter the market from TWX (SI/Time) management because its "stories" were being scooped/leaked.

As I recently argued on my blog regarding science futures, if it is acknowledged that insiders can participate, then why would outsiders want to take the other side of the trade? Unless there are hedgers (Tom Brady? - kidding), people trading for entertainment/reputation, or idiots, liquidity and volume would tend to dry-up anyway.

Posted by: Jason Ruspini at Dec 5, 2005 7:41:08 PM

Mother Nature? How unfair! Father Time *totally* deserved to win!

Posted by: Peter at Dec 5, 2005 10:24:57 PM

On second thought, there is no need to assume external pressure. Sportsbook also shut-down their "The Amazing Race" markets in March and September. They are not really in the business of providing predictions after all. Rather, they want to maximize volume and squash no-trade conditions that would result from insider trading. (In their words, "protect the thousands of other bettors who will wager") Sportsbook no doubt also recognizes that no-trade conditions would be contagious across many of their markets if they were known to accommodate insiders in any one market.

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