Marginal Revolution: Does having daughters make you more interventionist?

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Does having daughters make you more interventionist?

...it was the “switchers” who provided the most compelling evidence. By examining declared voting preferences for the period 1991 to 2004, Professor Oswald and Dr Powdthavee found that 539 people switched from Left to Right, and 802 switched from Right to Left. The most significant difference between these two groups of switchers? The voters who swung from Right to Left had borne, on average, more daughters.

Read about the cross-sectional results as well.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on December 25, 2005 at 09:01 PM in Political Science | Permalink

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» Daughters, liberalism, and intermediate outcomes from Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Several studies have been performed in the last few years looking at the economic decisions of parents of sons, as compared to parents of daughters. For example, Tyler Cowen links to a report of a study by Andrew Oswald and... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 26, 2005 9:00:07 AM

» Does having sons make you more conservative? Maybe, maybe not. A problem with controlling for an intermediate outcome from Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Several studies have been performed in the last few years looking at the economic decisions of parents of sons, as compared to parents of daughters. For example, Tyler Cowen links to a report of a study by Andrew Oswald and... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 26, 2005 9:36:38 AM

» Daughters of the revolution from blogs for industry
Tyler Cowen notes a study showing that the tendency to switch parties leftward is positively correlated with the number of daughters in a family. Andrew Gelman points out a potential flaw ...suppose (hypothetically) that politically conservative par... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 26, 2005 4:39:26 PM

Tracked on Dec 26, 2005 7:31:06 PM

» http://newmarksdoor.typepad.com/mainblog/2005/12/via_tyler_cowen.html from Newmark's Door
Via Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution, news of an interesting new study that concludes “This paper provides evidence that daughters make people more left wing. Having sons, by contrast, makes them more right wing.” Only performed, apparently, on Briti... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 27, 2005 9:17:36 AM

» Does Having Daughters Make You More Interventionist? from Right Mind
A fascinating article: ...it was the “switchers” who provided the most compelling evidence.... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 28, 2005 12:33:04 AM

» Algunas anotaciones recientes from 1812
Tengo por ah� recopilados algunos enlaces que creo no haber recomendado hasta ahora ni estoy seguro de que se hayan rese�ado desde Red Liberal. [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 29, 2005 7:01:23 PM

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Comments

this should make us worry about China being more aggressive, no?

Posted by: joelw at Dec 25, 2005 10:45:42 PM

It would be interesting to do this study in the US, where the Left has imploded in similar fashion as the Right (Tories) in England...

Posted by: Foobarista at Dec 26, 2005 1:39:40 AM

I think you unfairly associate a tendancy to switch to left-parties with interventionalism. It's not as if right-wing parties are really any less interventional on average (especially in practice, as oppossed to what they might say in their rhetoric).

The differences are primarily the targets of intervention.

Another explaination for the switch may not be (directly) economic in nature, a greater number of girls may mean a more pronounced likihood to accept left-party rhetoric, especially in things like social issues as opposed to economic issues.

Posted by: UberIcarus at Dec 26, 2005 8:32:29 AM

The big impacts on voting are driven by family structure -- most notably, married women with children are much more likely to vote Republican than single women, especially single mothers.

In 2004, Bush's share of the vote by state correlated at the r = 0.91 level with the average number of years married between 18 and 44 among white women in each state. (Utah, where Bush got over 70%, was the most married at 17 years out of 27, while DC, where he got less than 10%, was the least married at 7 years out of 27.) See: http://www.vdare.com/sailer/050123_vindicated.htm

I haven't seen data by sex of children, but in my personal experience, having sons tends to make women more conservative. Women tend to take things more personally than men, and having sons changes their political perspectives more. For example, if you are white and have sons, affirmative action can stop sounding like something that all nice people believe in and start sounding like discrimination against your children.

In general, it's hard to believe in the blank slate dogmas of feminism when you have sons -- most mothers realize how limited is their influence over their sons.

Finally, there is a modest effect on divorce rates of having sons -- husbands are more likely to stay married if they have sons, which probably helps keep their wives more conservative.

If the Republicans continue to be the party of war, they may lose votes from parents with sons who could be drafted, but both 2000 and 2004 were elections driven by identity politics rather than views on foreign policy -- Bush completely his foreign policy from "humble" in 2000 to grandiose in 2004, but the profiles of the two electiosn were almost identical.

For more details on affordable family formation as the main driver of voting, see: http://blog.vdare.com/archives/2005/05/08/affordable-family-formation-the-neglected-key-to-gops-future/

Posted by: Steve Sailer at Dec 26, 2005 3:47:39 PM

This is not so hard to fathom if you think about it.

Having boys teaches you that authority is a powerful persuader and controller, and that boys need a lot of authority, both from you and the society around you. Otherwise they run riot. Also boys are immensely competitive and their fathers' expectations for them are that they will be 'winners'. Any there is a tendency to invest more in boys (be it school fees, athletic activities, toys etc.) which means a greater sensitivity to taxes.

These are all conservative political values: authority, individual responsibility, winners and losers.

Girls are vastly more difficult to control that way. And you worry about them being single mothers, or otherwise abandoned without support networks.

Another factor is that the more children you have, the politically more conservative you become (why is a matter of conjecture, but I would argue a large family has a more hierarchical command and control structure, there is less consideration given to the individual, also a larger family costs more, so you want lower taxes). So since we have smaller families, that factor is absent vs. say, our parents day.

(all of the above in the context of a British male, married no children but with nieces and nephews)

Posted by: John at Dec 28, 2005 10:59:18 AM

I think the poster above has it right. It's not about "activist government" or notions of "daddy party" vs. "mommy party." It's about what's best for your kids.

The same way that white mothers see affirmative action as harming their sons, fathers see "traditional values" parties as hurting their daughters. Most fathers quite sensibly don't want the man who marries their daughter to have absolute authority over her, and they support politicians who are going to make it easier for their daughters to fully participate in society as equal players. So they vote for the party that's pissed off about the wage gap, they vote for the party that's making daycare more accessible, they push for the party that's making it easier to keep a family together. Because that's going to make their daughters' lives better.

(incidentally, this is probably why the Monica Lewinsky scandal hurt Democrats so badly. All the folks who had switched sides becuase the Democrats were going to help keep their little girls safe thought, "dang, that party won't keep my little girl safe against dirty old men," and so they switched back.)

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