How to write a paper or give a seminar

At the Ph.d. level, that is.  John Cochrane has great advice throughout.  It starts as follows:

Figure out the one central and novel contribution of your paper.  Write this down in one paragraph.  As with all your writing, this must be concrete.

Here are John's far more specific (and for most people less useful) suggestions for paper topics.

Thanks to Newmarks' Door for the pointer, courtesy of Ngan Dinh.