Marginal Revolution: The New Zealand election

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The New Zealand election

It is going on now, many say "too close to call," here is The New Zealand Herald (with updates on their home page), and yes comments are open, add what you know, and I will update this post in the morning. National Party candidate Don Brash is, to the best of my knowledge, the best candidate running for a leadership position in any major country in some time. And of course Sunday is the election in Germany...

Addendum: The vote is very close. This is mixed member proportional representation, so the final outcome will depend on negotiating a coalition with the minor parties. This could take weeks, with (boo-hoo) Winston Peters as the likely kingmaker. Here is the voting; note that ACT is the libertarian party but they have only 1.5 percent.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on September 16, 2005 at 10:34 PM in Political Science | Permalink

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» "Heavy" voter turnout in New Zealand barely above postwar low from productivityshock.blog-city.com
Many negative factors�can deter�voting in troubled democracies (fears of violence, political retribution, etc.), but in mature democracies I think declining�turnout�should be seen as an encouraging sign for those societies. [Read More]

Tracked on Sep 17, 2005 10:15:03 PM

Comments

Well of course you like Brash, but you're blind to anything but economics, and not necessarily right even then. Brash's campaign has been one of the ugliest in recent NZ history. He calls homosexuals, feminists (including the sitting PM), and Maori, yes - Maori, "not mainstream New Zealanders." Before public backlash he was willing to defer to the US on NZ's anti-nuclear stance. He's outright lied about his party's relationship with the Exclusive Brethren (google that if needed). And, since this is a blog comment, I'll add that he's failed to condemn campus National groups that have taken to heckling the PM for her looks and calling her a lesbian. I'm no fan of Labour, but Brash is flat out a bad choice for PM.

Posted by: MC at Sep 17, 2005 1:38:33 AM

The first three out of four of MC's allegations are not true, and failing to condemn bad behaviour by supporters is common to both sides and not a big deal anyway.

The biggest worry with Brash is the rest of his party. He doesn't need their approval to advocate sound policies when in opposition, but he will need them if he wants to achieve much in government.

Posted by: Nigel Kearney at Sep 17, 2005 2:44:00 AM

The ACT leader won an electorate seat so doesn't need to reach 5% . ACT will come in with 2 seats.

Basically the election has ended in a draw with NZ First holding the balance of power. We're also waiting on special votes which make up 10% of the total and may tip it.

Posted by: James at Sep 17, 2005 8:41:10 AM

On "mainstream New Zealand": http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3327395a11,00.html

On NZ's anti-nuclear stance: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10334285

On the exclusive Brethren: http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2005/s1457454.htm

How are these not true, I'll sure you can explain...

Posted by: MC at Sep 17, 2005 10:43:18 AM

And let me add he would've followed Bush into Iraq: http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3351714a10,00.html

Posted by: MC at Sep 17, 2005 10:44:49 AM

Currently it is looking like a very tight win to the leftist government. Special votes may change it but probably wont.

Awkward government if the Labour party must rely upon the far left parties to govern and the centerist parties who hate those parties.

Posted by: GeniusNZ at Sep 18, 2005 12:29:21 AM

Clark will have real difficulty stitching together the needed support.
Many think of the Green party [needed by Clark for the numbers] as
fiscally dysfunctional. Other needed parties have refused to work with
the Greens so this presents real problems for Labour. Labour also offended
the Maori party publicly [Maoris have 4 seats] by saying that they would
be last cab off the rank for Labour, and yet now Labour need them
desperately. National has been the real professional here, they have
strong relationships with the United-Future & Act Parties, NZ First leader
Winston Peters was in former times a National party leader & there appears
to be goodwill towards the Maori party. The new PM, sooner or later over
the next few weeks will be Dr Don Brash.

Posted by: Muzza at Sep 18, 2005 2:43:13 AM

I question James' claim that NZ First will hold the balance of power.

We currently have the closest thing to a draw (excluding special votes which make up 10% of the total votes). A very interesting result but without the extra seat (122+1) allocatable (and necessary) in such circumstances it could well be NZ First, or the Greens, or even the Maori Party holding the balance of power.

Whatever way you look at it we've now got representation most suited to MPs voting on a conscience basis. I'd like all MP votes for the next 3 years to be cast by ballots kept secret until just before the next election; that would encourage true democracy!

I'm most keen to see the results for the most marginal seats because that should allow us to more accurately anticipate the outcome.

Posted by: Geoff at Sep 18, 2005 8:13:00 AM

Strong relationship with ACT? He barely even wanted to be seen with Hide all election and wrote him off in his own electorate, now when it comes down to it he needs ACT and has to run to them. ACT will go with National because they need to stay relevant. He also said that he couldnt see them possibly going with the Maori party, now he's phoning them too?
I know Labour is doing the same, but they never made the same strong comments about they other parties (except the Maori party) that national did.

Posted by: AJ at Sep 18, 2005 4:00:19 PM

There is very little doubt now that Labour will form a government. Moreover, it would hardly be in the National Party's longer-term interests to do so, as any ability to undertake the sort of meaningful reforms new governments are after (and that National was campaigning on) would be lost, and some of its base alientated, in the dependence on NZ First and the Maori Party. Aging governments form such coalitions (Nat in 1996, Labour now). I've never been a great Brash fan, but to have come so close this time, when the economy is still running strong and people are feeling pretty good, is a pretty creditable performance- and a reflection of some weak management by Labour around its Budget this year.

Posted by: michael at Sep 18, 2005 5:04:07 PM

This election is all stupid! Because the vote has come so close any decision in Parliment will be hard to pass. And we'll have a terrible 3 years here in NZ. All the time I hear about how the Americans are stupid because of how they voted in their elections, noneone in NZ can say anything because this election has been even worse.

What I believe will happen in this election is a draw. National with 49 seats have Act with 2 (which is definate), which makes 51, and United Future (which is almost definately National and will go with National) with 3 making 54, then you have Labour, with 50 who's only definate is progressive with 1 which makes 51 (If green's go with Labour, NZ First will not go with them because of the Ministerial Positions greens want) therefore National with 54 and Labour with 51, NZ First will go with National under the point that they will go with the party with the most seats, putting National at 61 (half of the 122 seats). Labour takes the other parties and its a draw and we have a re-election!

Posted by: tomu at Sep 20, 2005 5:58:25 AM

Surely the likes of NZ First and United are honour bound to support the party with the most votes / seats? And that is Labour. Because this was their published policy before the election.

After all, that was Peters' excuse in 1996 for breaking his pre-election promose to go with Labour after that election.

Labour effectively "won" the election on the vote, if only by 1 seat (or 1.1%). Special votes probably won't change this scenario, if anything the specials will favour the Greens, who are effectively Labour seats.

Justman

Posted by: Justin at Sep 21, 2005 7:35:30 AM

u suck

Posted by: dave at Sep 26, 2005 9:13:18 AM

Mitch is a fag

Posted by: shayne at Sep 26, 2005 9:16:11 AM

i'm a fag and i do men

Posted by: aaron at Sep 26, 2005 9:17:56 AM

Gee whiz, some really intelligent comments here. It's good that Brash didn't get in, the poor old Kiwis (of which I'm an expat) would have had to put up with a government that panders to this kind of dumbass bigotry.

Posted by: Justman at Sep 30, 2005 8:31:46 PM

The Kiwis should pull together and focus on the external threat:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/15/1089694491783.html

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