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What is the best way of measuring productivity?

Should we include the financial sector?  Here is Daniel Gross on this debate:

In principle, economists say, the figure that represents the broadest possible swath of the economy is preferable. That would seem to weigh in favor of the more pessimistic nonfarm business number. But there may be good reasons for giving careful weight to the measure of productivity that excludes the financial world. In some ways, it may be more accurate.

After all, it's much easier to calculate productivity for companies that produce widgets than it is for companies that produce less tangible goods like insurance policies. While the productivity of a factory worker doesn't vary radically from month to month, the productivity of a hedge fund manager can swing wildly from week to week.

What's more, it strikes some economists as strange that including the dynamic financial sector would somehow make the economy seem less productive. "If you see productivity being dragged down by the inclusion of the financial sector, you have to be a little suspicious," said David Altig, vice president and associate director for research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. (Mr. Altig speaks for himself, not for the Fed.)

Read Brad DeLong for commentary. 

The bottom line: Productivity is doing better than we had thought.  The second bottom line is that the first bottom line could be wrong and productivity might be doing worse than we had thought.  The best guess, however, is that we are mismeasuring productivity in the financial sector.  Keep in mind, the rate of productivity growth is the critical variable for whether we will survive the coming Medicare fiscal train wreck, without entering the realm of perpetual economic stagnation and draconian tax rates.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on August 22, 2005 at 04:41 PM in Economics | Permalink

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Comments

Another possibility is that we are seeing the effects of partisan data fudging at the BLS in the runup to the 2006 election...

With the "war" going badly the economy has to look good for the Republicans.

Posted by: monkyboy at Aug 22, 2005 5:18:06 PM

When I used to work for an American company in India, I noticed one strange thing about the way the company measured productivity. The formula was something like revenue/(# of employees) which sounds correct at face value. But the number of employees did not include the thousands of engineers that the company used to hire from other Indian software firms. These engineers were considered to work in outsourced projects and were not included in the headcount, but were actually working on critical stuff for the company, and in several instances worked at the company's facility in Bangalore. The company paid around 5000$ per engineer per month in the beginning (the number went down later) to the Indian company when the going rate in the market was around 700$ per month. We all used to wonder why this is happening until we realized that the company claimed productivity numbers of 400k$+. If this is the way the US productivity numbers are calculated, I would say it's an overestimate.

Posted by: Eswaran at Aug 22, 2005 10:26:25 PM

"approaching fiscal train wreck" ... "perpetual economic stagnation and draconian taxes" wow!

Is it now time to start making bigger waves around leveraged choices on the cost side as well? ....such as Professor Tabarrok's suggestions that with FDA reforms, better and cheaper drugs could be available much sooner? Professor Lautenberg says a dollar in new drugs tends to save more than $5 in other costs and that is pretty good leverage. He also says 40% of the recent gains in lifespan are due to the new drugs that we got....that we got even without Prof T's FDA reforms.

Posted by: Dave Meleney at Aug 22, 2005 10:38:28 PM

The problem with measuring productivity in the financial sector is that very ogten, the output is a function purely of the interest rate environment. With the result that an accommodating monetary policy will result predictably in a surge in financial sector productivity. Not only are hedge fund managers all genuises in the right environment, they're also hard workers. When interest rate policies change, by contrast, they're all revealed as lazy idiots. The issue is complicated and distorted further when your central banker also happens to control the world's reserve currency.

Posted by: Michael Taylor at Aug 23, 2005 5:06:47 AM

Revenue per employee for an individual company
is an important variable, but it is a very different
measure then productivity because of double counting.

Interestingly, average hourly earnings in finance has
been growing much faster then total averge hourly
earnings for over 20 years -- suggesting financial
sector productivity is higher. And this is also
supported by other data -- for example, employment in
commercial banking is still lower then it was in 1980.
If the massive consolidation of the banking system
we have been undergoing for a couple of decades is
not improving financial swystem productivity something is wrong.

In boston in the mid-1970s there were something between
20 to 30 bank economists. Now there are 2 or 3.

Posted by: spencer at Aug 23, 2005 1:23:02 PM

what is the productivity of a fund manager? if 80% of fund managers underperform a robotic index, then does that mean that 80% of fund managers (and all of the people who work for them) get up every day and destroy value? I can see the case for a venture investor, but it's hard to see what the vanilla mutual fund manager contributes to productivity or to society.

Posted by: bjr@yahoo.com at Aug 27, 2005 9:24:38 AM

how about using econometric or mathematical programming methods to measure productivity in financial sector?

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my sisters hot friend -
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my sex tour -
my sisters hot friend -
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naughty bookworms -
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naughty julie -
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milton twins -
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my naughty latin maid -
my sex tour -
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