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Unintended consequences
The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks are increasingly viewed in the oil-rich Arab countries of the Persian Gulf as the catalyst for an economic boom when Arabs divested from America and reinvested at home.
Arab investors pulled tens of billions of dollars out of the United States. They were angered by perceived American hostility toward Arabs. They worried their assets would be frozen by U.S. counter-terrorism measures. And U.S. markets happened to be plummeting while economies in the Persian Gulf were on the upswing, buoyed by rising oil prices.
The results have been spectacular.
Since late 2001, economies in the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries -- Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia -- have soared, with stock markets up a collective 400 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 rose 24 percent over that period.
It is noted that rising oil prices have not hurt either; here is the story. Dubai has probably been the biggest beneficiary.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on August 27, 2005 at 08:35 AM in Current Affairs | Permalink
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Comments
This is good for the US. N Ireland only calmed down when the people had something other than the past to think of. All the moneyed people ready to bail at a moments notice isn't good for a country.
Posted by: Huggy at Aug 27, 2005 11:08:06 AM
It should also be noted that this is temporary. The West has been using petroleum despite the political cost because the price at the port of entry was less than the alternatives.
That appears to have changed, though it's going to take some time before the impression that this is not just a blip takes hold. When it does, the entire west is going to start a massive abandonment of petroleum for other energy supplies (not all of them "fuel" in the chemical sense either).
Middle East production is peaking around now. World prices will be limited by recession if they go too high, and will be clipped by substition once that process gets moving. Sinking production and capped prices will cause revenue to fall, and the investment boom will come to an end; the Arabs better invest in assets which don't depend on other petroleum economies or their whole house of cards will come down along with Ghawar.
Posted by: Engineer-Poet at Aug 28, 2005 12:15:19 PM
The Arabs ARE investing in assets which don't depend on other petroleum economies, namely Tourism with a capital "T".
In places like Dubai, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar they are building entire new cities based on tourism. Dubai and Qatar are building island complexes where no islands existed before (search for The Pearl-Qatar and The Palm Island-Dubai for starters.) SIX-star hotels and resorts, designer shopping, yachting, diving, etc. It's quite astonishing what they are doing in non oil/gas related venues. Investment is pouring in from both within and without the Arab nations, all the major luxury hotel brands are represented, and tourism from within Europe and the U.K. is growing fast.
Even Saudi Arabia is building a timeshare resort just outside of the holy of holies in Mecca, for cryin' out loud. Can you believe it? And the thing is selling out before it's even built.
Maybe they have looked into the future and seen the wisdom of diversifying their economy? The (oil) party is about over, but the USA hasn't figured that out yet and we're still dancing on the table tops.
Posted by: tigerdog at Aug 28, 2005 4:18:19 PM
Unless they are willing to run TGV tracks all the way to those resorts, it's hard to see how they'll keep the tourist traffic in a world of $5.00/gallon jet fuel.
Posted by: Engineer-Poet at Aug 28, 2005 8:19:21 PM
Aside from tourism being affected by the price of jet fuel, it's hideously vulnerable to terrorism.
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