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Undervalued economies -- the wisdom of Alex
In January Alex wrote: "My own pick for undervalued nation was Germany..."
This week's (August 20-26) cover in The Economist: Germany's Surprising Economy
Here is just one bit:
Thanks to the intense pressure that they have been under in the past few years, Germany's big companies have restructured and cut their bloated cost base. This process has for once been helped by the trade unions, which had been a stubborn obstacle to change. German workers have belatedly recognised that change has become essential, which is why they have been ready over the past year or so to accept such innovations as more decentralised pay bargaining, longer hours and even wage cuts. Thanks in part to this new flexibility, unit labour costs, a benchmark of competitiveness, have fallen sharply relative to other countries. In the past five years, Germany, long the most costly place in Europe in which to do business, has won a new competitive edge over France, Italy, the Netherlands and even Britain. That is a big reason why, last year, it regained its position as the world's biggest exporter.
So what today looks like the most undervalued economy? Can the lovely Croatia go so wrong? Has everyone capitalized the commodities-driven recovery of Argentina? Is it well understood how prepared Singapore is to complement the growth of China? Aren't Arab stock markets booming? Comments are open...
Posted by Tyler Cowen on August 20, 2005 at 05:01 PM in Economics | Permalink
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Comments
I concur on Croatia, but that's just because I've enjoyed visiting there more than anything else.
Posted by: Will Franklin at Aug 20, 2005 10:45:57 PM
World's biggest exporter.
Hmmm, does America count exports between states
as "exports?"
Posted by: Sandy P at Aug 21, 2005 3:01:39 AM
Very good call on Germany - How about somewhere in Africa for the next surprise - Uganda? I don't know enough of the details of individual countries. However, the continent as a whole does seem to have so much potential and some relatively simple problems that can be fixed(some larger ones too of course - but they are what make it cheap). It has the world's attention and has been very under-rated in recent years -as Germany was in the recent past. Get some free trade in agricultural goods and maybe we can have a more positive outlook.
Posted by: RobHayward at Aug 21, 2005 3:24:29 AM
hmm..
WHAT is the definition of "undervalued"?
Exchange rate?
GDP below trend?
Exports below trend (as you implicitly suggest in germany's case)??
Posted by: economist at Aug 21, 2005 8:23:19 AM
I visited Zagreb briefly back in Jan 2002, there was something about the people that told me Croatia would be growing a strong economy.
Posted by: aaron at Aug 21, 2005 10:58:59 AM
yeah might be true with germany, but well i cannot feel it yet with germany being an economic powerhouse again. as for that maybe we have to wait the next 10-30 years until we finally (or never) accomplish to get over one of the greatest economic shocks ever recognized since world war 2: re-unification.
my bets for next undervalued economy is on some african country too, taking a wide shot: uganda or kenya are quite goods candidates, though i know people there who might not have the same opinion: thanks to bribery...
Posted by: benny at Aug 21, 2005 6:27:17 PM
If it can get its act together, admittedly a huge "if," I could foresee the Palestinian Authority becoming a strong economy, if not precisely a powerhouse. There's a strong entrepreneurial drive in its population, and a prosperous, natural training partner in Israel.
Posted by: Peter at Aug 21, 2005 9:11:05 PM
Much as I would like to believe things are improving in Germany, it is worth noting that the IMF for one are unconvinced.
Today the FT reported that although Germany is expected to see higher growth this year than previously forecast, the IMF have downgraded their 2006 forecast. They also expect Germany's public sector deficit to exceed the EU 3% limit this year and next.
More in mm blog post.
Posted by: New Economist at Aug 22, 2005 3:52:10 AM
I'd strongly differentiate the terms "undervalued economy" and "undervalued stock market". Stock market, i.e.m big corporations, can prosper even in the environment of stagnating GDP. Similarly, stock may fall despite fast economic growth, as can be seen in China.
German macro is lousy, and will remain so for a while. German corporations are different story, however.
Posted by: Pavel at Aug 22, 2005 4:26:43 AM
Wow, I just found out that I picked Kazakhstan as undervalued back in January (can be found in comments to the article). The KASE stock index has made more that 75% since then. Pity that my money haven't followed my mouth.
Posted by: Pavel at Aug 22, 2005 4:37:58 AM
Kazakhstan is just rising on oil prices. Buying their market is probably pretty much a proxy for buying oil futures, as oil's all they make.
Posted by: michael vassar at Aug 22, 2005 9:35:37 AM
I'd second Peter on Palestine, but more particularly Gaza. Palestinian refugees were known as entrepreneurs across the Arab world. It strikes me as being the kind of place suitable for Singapore type development. The key question is whether Hamas has become too entrenched as a militant organisation or whether it can act as a check on PA corruption.
Posted by: tadhgin at Aug 22, 2005 10:45:54 AM
Yes, nothing screams 'good economy' quite like a country with 16 percent unemployment and a government run by militant, semi-retarded marxists.... oh wait did I say good economy, I guess I actually meant... super-duper-crappy.
Posted by: lebeaux at Aug 22, 2005 10:55:36 PM
Vietnam
1) Labor costs 1/5 of China
2) Move to privatize and intelligent reforms.
3) Improved trade relations with the US.
4) FDI friendly.
5) Small stock market makes it too illiquid to attract many global investment funds.
6) Population is generally hard working, savings oriented and value education.
2nd place - Malaysia mainly because too many international fund managers have kept the country's weighting low after getting screwed in 1998. However the market's attention span is short and Malaysia is growing at a healthy pace. Also the Malaysian Burse and the Singapore Stock Exchange are going to link up. Used to be that Singaporeans were very active in that market but became less so after the currency crisis. The link should start to encourage greater investment flows.
Posted by: asiequana at Aug 23, 2005 9:58:33 AM
A little late to this, but I'd say Nigeria, booming entertainment industry, huge population, fairly well run, but for all I know Nigeria is valued decently in economist circles. All that aside Indonesia's economic recovery is probably affecting Papa New Gueina it being sandwiched between Indonesia and Australia seems like a good place. Plus it's close to China hence China could import a good amount of natural resources from New Geuina if they could get a little more modernized. Kenya is notable in that it's managed to not only attract Chinese investment, but also Korean (LG is building cell phones there now).
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