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What is the chance that oil will hit $100 a barrel?
James Hamilton gives a comprehensive answer. If you believe the options market, the answer is about 7 percent, using June 2006 as an expiration date. On the brighter side, there is a 15 percent chance, more or less, that it falls below $40 a barrel by that same date.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on July 6, 2005 at 11:48 PM in Economics | Permalink
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