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Social security update

President Bush has taken special care to tell us that his social security plans will involve no new "payroll taxes" [does this mean "no new taxes"?].  Nor, supposedly, will the plan to cut the deficit be derailed.  What then will happen?  The Wall Street Journal (December 10, p.A5) writes:

While Mr. Bush has been silent, some administration officials privately acknowledge his idea is that workers who open private accounts would agree to take a smaller share of Social Security benefits.

Cryptic, yes.  Does it simply mean that putting money into a private account lowers your participation in standard old age benefits?  That, taken alone, wouldn't ease the transition costs at all, given the pay as you go nature of the system.  Or does it mean that you pay a transfer tax on the switch to private accounts?  How much could our government raise by auctioning off the right to leave the system?  [Probably not full value, but government can reap some equity-based returns up front, without having to own the equities in the longer run.]  Of course if the transfer tax is high enough, there is not much "privatization" at all but rather we stick with the status quo.  Stay tuned...

Posted by Tyler Cowen on December 11, 2004 at 08:07 AM in Current Affairs | Permalink

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» Opting out from locussolus
Tyler Cowen speculates that Bush's Social Security plan might consist of a "transfer tax" that younger workers could pay for the privilege of not paying any more FICA, or at least putting that money in a private account instead. I don't think this is v... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 11, 2004 7:32:44 PM

» A tax on leaving: let's see a show of hands from all who would pay to quit Social Security from Right Side of the Rainbow
The always sharp Tyler Cowen asks an intriguing question: How much could our government raise by auctioning off the right to leave the [Social Security] system? By use of the word "auctioning," I assume that Tyler means an option open... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 12, 2004 2:00:21 AM

» A tax on leaving: let's see a show of hands from all who would pay to quit Social Security from Right Side of the Rainbow
The always sharp Tyler Cowen asks an intriguing question: How much could our government raise by auctioning off the right to leave the [Social Security] system? By use of the word "auctioning," I assume that Tyler means an option open... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 12, 2004 2:05:15 AM

» Perils of Privatization from Duophony
First of all, Brad DeLong issues this jeremiad I have to get out of the way: The U.S. government's fiscal problems are not in the Social Security system. The U.S. government's fiscal problems are in the General Fund. And these fiscal problems are dire ... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 13, 2004 6:14:56 AM

» Perils of Privatization from Duophony
First of all, Brad DeLong issues this jeremiad I have to get out of the way: The U.S. government's fiscal problems are not in the Social Security system. The U.S. government's fiscal problems are in the General Fund. And these fiscal problems are dire ... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 13, 2004 6:17:27 AM

» More opting out from locussolus
Just for fun, I calculated the net present value of my Social Security benefit, based on the (admittedly heroic) assumption that I'll earn $40,000 every year until I'm 62. According to this chart, the life expectancy of a male born in 1976 is 69.1, bu... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 13, 2004 8:59:19 AM

» Markets in everything, Signifying Nothing version from Signifying Nothing
Tyler Cowen has been beating the drum against social security privatization for a good while, and it has finally sunken in with me. After thinking about it enough, it appears that he is right: we will end up with two... [Read More]

Tracked on Dec 19, 2004 12:19:35 AM